I always like articles about the housing bubble. Some people believe a crash is inevitable and some people think the economy can stave it off. This article and similar ones prove that no one really knows anything and people are just guessing. Everyone has an opinion and everyone’s sure they’re correctly predicting the future, but the truth is anything can happen and no one has a clue.
Someday, something will happen, and it will prove that someone—by chance—was right. He or she knew it all along, and the proud individual will be happy to tell you that if you had just listened to that person’s advice you would have been fine.
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3:18 pm (reply)
So those predicting a war in Europe in the 30s were just silly Sallys. The impending war was signaled by actions by Germany and Japan was already moving through Asia. Silly of anyone to worry.
I’m not sure what interest you have in in writing this entry, but to claim that the future is unpredictable is a strange refuge to avoid the signs of a bubble. Housing is overpriced, historically, and there are no redeeming fundamentals that explain why aside from enhanced liquidity and easy credit.
But hey, everybody has an opinion, and the future can’t be predicted, no one has a clue. The truisms make it OK to ignore very good predictors of a correction to come?
Really, it’s just your opinion, and you say nothing that’s useful. Hope you convinced yourself.
3:47 pm (reply)
Interesting comment—you completely missed my point. Perhaps I didn’t explain it well enough. I’m not taking any position on whether we’re currently in a housing bubble—that’s not my job. I’m observing that there are people who feel they can finitely predict (rather than make vague statements) about when and how the housing bubble will crash.
Chances are that it’ll happen on multiple local scales and nationally as well, but to be able to predict when and how it’s going to happen is merely guesswork. Someone will end up correct, because if you say “it’s noon” every minute of a day, you’re going to be right once.
If you can tell me when and how the impending crash will occur, be my guest, future boy. :> I’ll bid one second past your prediction and maybe I’ll win The Price is Right’s showcase showdown.
5:14 pm (reply)
Flexo,
You’re right. Nobody truly knows what’s going to happen. We have never been in this situation before. This is totally different from the tech bubble in that houses are at least real assets and not pie-in-the-sky hopes and dreams like the tech companies were.
But, one has to wonder just what is going on. If I were in the housing market right now, I’d be really concerned.
JLP
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