Neville is writing about predicting the markets. Are the markets predictable? What were people predicting in 1930 and 1940, and were those predictions accurate?
I was researching these questions and I came across a paper by Felix Stalder, a PhD Student at the University of Toronto, entitled The Nature of Financial Networks. It’s an interesting paper about the markets and the history of globalization, among other things. Be sure to check out the section on the forecasting of markets.
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Predicting the market is pretty much impossible, but IDENTIFYING TRENDS is slightly more possible.
Generally the higher level a person is, the earlier they can spot a trend. I know people who very early on spot trends in real estate, stock etc. because of their broad knowledge of an area.
The hard part about market trends is actually ca$hing in on them by identifying the right stocks.
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