First Five Days of 2009 May Indicate Stock Market’s Performance

Over the last 36 years whose first five days resulted in a stock market increase, 31 of those years experienced an overall good year for stocks. While that’s a good track record, it’s not an infallible indicator. There are three trading days left in 2008, a lost cause for the stock market.

This method has an 86% success ratio. Will you make any investing decisions based on the market’s performance during the first five trading days of January?

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Tagged as: Investing, stock, stock market, Trading

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Flexo, the owner and creator of Consumerism Commentary, has been blogging and writing for the internet since 1995 and has been building online communities since 1991. Find out more about him and follow him on Twitter.

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Jasper

You calculated a success ratio based on years where the first five days showed growth. Did you also calculate the correlation/ratio for years where the first five days showed a (strong) decrease?

Flexo

Jasper: That's a good question, I'll see if I can put the numbers together.

Writer's Coin

Most definitely not! Relying on this kind of thing is baaaad news. Same as all the junk sports announcers always use: "Teams never come back when they're down 0-3 in a best of seven series."

Until it actually happens (see Red Sox). I would urge readers to try to ignore they even heard this.

Jeff Rose

@ Flexo

I hope you're right on this because today was definitely a good start. Nice way to start off the year.

cashdoctor

Well the five days have gone by and where are we 8952 started and ened at 8750 LOOKS like we are going to have a DOWN year onthe stock market
No one is talking about this. Everyone is IGNORING THE FACTS.

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