Ethanol: a study of unintended consequences

As recently as two years ago, ethanol was considered by many to be the solution for this country’s reliance on imported oil. Ethanol can be produced domestically, and it costs no more to make a car that runs on ethanol than it does to make a car that runs on gasoline. Following Brazil’s example with sugar cane, farmers began converting their corn crops into ethanol for use in automobiles.

Like this 2006 story from 60 Minutes, not many people were considering some of the downstream effects of using food crops for other purposes. The Earth Policy Institute provides a good example how ethanol has been a victim of the “law of unintended consequences” through two of its articles, separated only by time and events. In 2005, the institute praised efforts to promote ethanol.

Agricultural residues, such as corn stalks, wheat straw, and rice stalks, are normally left on the field, plowed under, or burned. Collecting just a third of these for biofuel production would allow farmers to reap a sort of second harvest, increasing farm income while leaving enough organic matter to maintain soil health and prevent erosion. The agricultural residues that could be harvested sustainably in the United States today, for example, could yield 14.5 billion gallons of ethanol—four times the current output—with no additional land demands.

The organization does not hold this opinion today. Earlier this year, the Earth Policy Institute called ethanol production “the beginning of one of the great tragedies of history.” This opinion is fostered by the unintended consequence of the popularity of and demand for ethanol. The prices of food worldwide are sharply increasing.

From 1990 to 2005, world grain consumption, driven largely by population growth and rising consumption of grain-based animal products, climbed by an average of 21 million tons per year. Then came the explosion in demand for grain used in U.S. ethanol distilleries, which jumped from 54 million tons in 2006 to 81 million tons in 2007. This 27 million ton jump more than doubled the annual growth in world demand for grain. If 80 percent of the 62 distilleries now under construction are completed by late 2008, grain used to produce fuel for cars will climb to 114 million tons, or 28 percent of the projected 2008 U.S. grain harvest.

Moving father down the chain of cause and effect, rising prices of food staples are “translating into social unrest.” Across the world, protests and demonstrations are increasing. While originally studying Brazil’s success with ethanol, these consequences were not anticipated.

Unintended consequences in your life

On a more personal level, the law of unintended consequences is present. Often, unintended consequences arise as a result of ignorance, error, or immediate gratification. Using credit to fund purchases beyond the level of affordability can have unintended consequences, fueled by ignorance. In this case, the consequence can be a lifetime of debt. Certainly this was not the predicted outcome when signing up for the first credit card offer. Immediate gratification can result in unintended consequences when dealing with credit as well.

The decision not to fund an emergency plan can have unintended consequences. Without the obligation to create an emergency fund, you have more cash available for spending—even if all you spend money on are necessities. But all other things being equal, it’s easier to divert $10 a week to a high-yield savings account now than it will be do scrounge several thousand dollars for vehicle repair, a hospital bill, or emergency house maintenance later, if you don’t have a buffer.

Here’s another example. Let’s say you have two job offers. One offer includes a $100,000 annual salary, long hours, responsibility, and growth prospects. The other offer is a $60,000 annual salary and a more manageable work-load, and a more enjoyable and emotionally fulfilling career. Many people will take the $100,000 salary, no questions asked, and “learn to deal” with the feeling.

There could be unintended consequences to this decision. Yes, you may move up the corporate ladder faster, but perhaps the stress will take a toll on your health. The high-powered career and resulting stress may knock a decade off your life span, providing you with ten years less to enjoy with your family. The desire for more money, more recognition, even more freedom, satisfies immediate gratification, one of the causes of unintended consequences.

What can you do to prevent unintended consequences?

Not all unintended consequences can be avoided. Many smart economists never expected the increased demand of ethanol to cause a deathly stampede in Chongqing, China.

No matter how much you go over a decision, considering its effects, it’s unlikely you’ll think of everything. It might help to staying away from instant gratification and short-term satisfaction that conflicts with long-term growth. Educate yourself about your situation so you can make your decisions as complete as possible.

Taking the example of the first credit card with the consequences of years of debt, when signing up for the card. you might have known you’d be in debt. The knowledge may have only been on a superficial level. The number of years it may take to pay back your debt at a particular interest rate and a particular monthly payment is a piece of information that will help you understand your decision on a deeper level. It may be this deeper knowledge that prevents unintended consequences.

Image credits: r-z, @aius

Almost 3 million children in the United States have learning disability (LDs). Different types of LDs have different effects on a child’s ability to perceive, comprehend, and interpret information, and these effects can last into adulthood. For example, dyslexia and dysnumeria can make financial calculations difficult, and temporal problems can lead to a tendency to pay bills late.

Arlyn Roffman, Ph.D. is an active psychologist who specializes in young adults with LDs. She presents a number of suggestions for parents interacting with middle and high school-aged children to help overcome financial and consumer struggles due to learning disabilities.

1. Orient your child to a variety of types of stores. As you visit grocery stores, department stores, pharmacies, etc., discuss the layout of the stores with the child. Allow them to help find the products you intend to buy by looking for the posted signs and similar items.

2. Help your child learn the sizes of the shoes and clothing she wears. Dr. Roffman indicates that many parents continue choosing clothing for children with LDs beyond the point the parents would stop and allow the children to choose otherwise. As children grow up, they should be allowed to express their personalities and start defining their own “image” through clothing like their peers.

3. Discuss tipping with your teen. Charts and calculators are available to help determine the percentage of a bill for tipping. If a child is involved in the tipping process when dining out with his family, he will likely be more comfortable when placed in these situations without parents as he becomes more independent. Also discuss the “going rates” for other service providers, like bellhops.

4. Counsel her about credit cards. Some aspects of credit cards are difficult to understand even without a learning disability. Dr. Roffman suggests discussing credit cards with a child once they start receiving credit offers in the mail, but I would suggest starting sooner. Middle school or early high school is probably a more appropriate age. They will have already noticed their parents’ spending habits at this point or have friends who use their parents’ credit cards.

5. Teach your teen about basic contracts. Warn teens against high-pressure sales tactics. Explain how contracts work (cell phone contracts, for example) and pay attention to the details, like termination fees and other traps.

6. Establish a basic budget early in the teen years. If you provide an allowance to your child or if he earns money from working, help him create a spending and saving plan.

7. Encourage her to use a “budget envelopes” book. The “envelope” system of budgeting is a simple method to maintaining a budget. If taken literally by using real envelopes and real cash, the concrete and tactile nature of the activity can be beneficial for a child with LD.

8. Toward the end of high school, teens need to learn how to manage a checkbook and pay bills. Dr. Roffman offers a great suggestion. Children with LDs may find the choice of carbon copy (duplicate) checks more beneficial. Dysgraphia can be a strong obstacle in writing checks, so you can slip in a “cheat sheet” into the checkbook if necessary, including proper spellings of numbers.

9. Help your teen set up a home office at a desk table. This suggestion seems to acclimate children towards working at a desk job, like many people in the United States. It also provides a central location for all the tools of money management, including the checkbook, the computer with Quicken for tracking financial accounts, and a paper file for maintaining records and bills.

Most of the suggestions above work well for children without learning disabilities as well, but children with LDs will face some extra challenges as they grow into adult consumers.

National Dissemination Center for Children with Disabilities
Dollars and Sense: Teaching Teens with LD Consumer Skills and Money Management [GreatSchools]

How are you feeling today? According to a psychologist from the U.K., January 24 is the most depressing day of the year. There’s an actual scientific formula that has been used to determined this fact. Some of the conditions that have led to this conclusion are specific to Britain, but there are seasonal cycles that contribute to this feeling anywhere throughout the winter, which is now, at least in the northern hemisphere.

This inspired me to think about my finances. Does my spending go through seasonal cycles? Checking Quicken, I see that my discretionary expenses do jump a bit from December through March compared to other times of the year. I don’t believe this has to do much with the weather or with therapeutic spending—shopping to make one happy when sad or depressed.

Obviously, Christmas and Hanukkah start the winter and Valentine’s Day occurs in the middle of the season. These holidays lead to more spending, at least for me. Additionally, I take a week-long vacation in February to coincide with my girlfriend’s winter break. (She is a teacher.) So for me, the winter is one of the most expensive seasons.

Perhaps offsetting this spending, I am more inclined to stay inside during the cold winter rather than go out and spend money on outside events like concerts and days spent in New York City.

What about other financial cycles? I wonder if people make worse investing decisions in the winter thanks to turbulent emotions, unpleasant weather, or both.

Image credit: scottfeldstein
Jan. 24 called worst day of the year [MSNBC]

In the next few days, I plan on reviewing my 2007 progress against my goals. However, I need to start thinking about 2008 before I have a chance to compile all the data. One of my biggest plans is to save a higher portion of my income. 2007 was a spend-heavy year for me, and it’s time to return to more basic levels of expense in most categories.

When I lay out my goals for 2008, that will be a primary focus.

Helpful for next year’s planning, Kiplinger has six suggestions for a prosperous 2008.

• Take advantage of higher IRA limits. The maximum contribution to all IRAs combined (in the role of an employee) is $5,000 (or $6,000 if you are over 50 years old). I say, “in the role of an employee” because self-employed people, as an employer, can contribute more to the SEP IRA. I may find that I no longer qualify for a Roth IRA, so while I’m considering a lump sum investment, I may wait before pulling the trigger.
• Stretch your raise even further. Use some of your raise to boost your 401(k) contribution. Now that the Roth 401(k) is available to me, I am splitting my contribution between the new account and the typical pre-tax account. Depending on other income sources, I may try to maximize my 401(k) contribution to the full $15,500.
• Focus on high-interest debt. Interest expense on debt is an unhealthy and in many times unnecessary payment. The only debt I have right now is a student loan. With savings account interest rates shrinking, it would be more beneficial for me to pay off the remainder of my student loan in 2008.
• Start gathering your tax records now. Ever year, my tax calculation increases in complexity. I think it’s time to hire a professional to make sure I’m finding every deduction and not making any mistakes. Many banks provide tax records electronically now, but it’s still important to develop a filing system to ensure everything is readily available.
• Put your bills and savings on autopilot. My telephone bill and cable bill are deducted automatically from a rewards credit card account. I am required to pay my rent by check, so that cannot be automated. My credit card payments change each month, and I cannot schedule in advance without knowing the exact amount. Savings, on the other hand, are easier.
• Protect your assets. I have not been a good protector. I’ve accumulated a fair amount of non-financial assets in the last few years, and particularly in 2007. I do not have a strong renter’s insurance policy to cover everything. This will be one goal of highest importance for the new year.

  6 Moves for a Prosperous New Year [Kiplinger]

I just ran across a cute article by TODAY Financial Editor Jean Chatzky which really spoke to me as a hater of all things mathematical.

According to Chatzky, math anxiety, one of the biggest roadblocks to getting one’s finances together, affects half of all Americans at some level. It can result from any early numerical trauma, from a bad experience in school to overdoing things on your first college credit card. And it’s a recognized condition:

The phobia is so real, it has its own diagnosis code from the American Psychological Association: 315.1.

It’s a serious affliction, Chatzky says, because to do money, you need to do math. To get beyond the fear and into your finances, she offers some useful suggestions:

1. Take a refresher course - Noncredit courses at a local community college are a great way to dive back in. Not only will it improve your skills, but can help you develop positive associations with math.

2. Start a money group – Clubs can help you to overcome a math phobia and increase your learning in a fun, social way. I think investing clubs sound like an interesting way to get information and experience on a topic that might otherwise bore me to tears. Even Finance 101-type topics would be very valuable to me, so I think I need to follow Chatzky’s advice on starting a “money group” among your friends:

At one meeting you might cover the basics of investing, at another you’ll talk about sending your kids to college. This support system can be a huge confidence booster, but more than that, you’ll be able to feed off of each other’s strengths. If your friends don’t go for the idea, you can link up with an existing group in your area by visiting Oprah.com/jean and clicking on “money groups.â€?

I bet that Meetup.com has some groups in my area as well. Just as long as I can make sure I’m not lured in by an advisor with a personal agenda, I think this can be really helpful and enjoyable.

3. Use shortcuts – Calculators and estimating, especially when rounding up, can make things simpler since you’re not manually crunching every digit.

4. Learn by osmosis – Even if you don’t have time to focus on financial topics, listening to a radio show or perhaps some Jim Cramer or Suze Orman in the background might help you start to absorb more information. Personally, I’ve found I burn more calories on the elliptical trainer when Mad Money is on at the gym. If you find you’re more open to reading about finance, the local paper or personal finance magazines at the library are great places to start expanding your knowledge.

5. Set your kids on the right track – Discuss math at home so that you help future generations of your family to be more financially confident. Real-life examples help you monitor your progress towards financial goals as you educate.

Have math anxiety? It might hurt your finances [Today Show at MSNBC.com]

Image Credit: Silence of Night

In my review of Cash, Cars & College by Janine Bolon, I didn’t mention the author’s thoughts on the nature of money, which she included in the book. To expand on this section, Janine has offered the following guest post.

Why Become Wealthy? Believe it or not, I’ve actually been asked this question by a student of mine! She totally did not get why anyone would want to be wealthy. After asking her to define what it was to be wealthy for the class I quickly became aware that she had a mental block to becoming wealthy. To her, “Rich” people acquired their secure financial state by abusing and crushing those around them to gain more and more money.

With that sort of paradigm floating around in her head, is it any wonder that this woman had problems saving money? She was in continual battle with herself! She knew she needed money, but anytime she had too high a savings account she would “splurge” on some item and blow out her stash of cash so that she was back to living paycheck to paycheck. Ouch! How painful is that?

To my sadness, this student is not alone in her assessment of “rich” people. Throughout my travels, classes and seminars I find that roughly 45% of the people who are having problems with money have to deal with this issue first before anything else can happen! No, it is not your credit card debt that is the problem, at least that isn’t the core issue with your financial scarcity.

The issue is much more basic then credit card debt. You have not given yourself permission to become wealthy because you haven’t answered these questions for yourself:

1. Do you see money as good or evil?
2. Do you want to have more cash because you can use it to buy things that you or people in your life need or want?
3. Are you afraid of having too much money because the only people who seem to have lots of it are the folks who have done something bad to get it?

These are some of the first questions you need to ask yourself. If you see money as a necessary “evil,” your ability to find and save money, let alone use it wisely, will be colored by your negative view of what it can do. Money is not evil. Money is only a tool, like a hammer. You can use that hammer the right way, to build a house for someone who needs one. Or you can use it the wrong way, to smack someone on the head. Either way, the hammer has no choice in how it is used. Good or bad, right or wrong, the choice along with credit or blame, belongs solely to the person who wields it.

The same is true for money. Money is a useful tool, a medium of exchange that allows you to buy stuff you want. Money spends, regardless of how you get it. The bucks from your paycheck buy just as much as the cash you get from part-time employment, or the coins you picked up in the parking lot. The sales clerk and the shop owner don’t care where you got the money; it spends. The only “good” or “bad” in money is what you bring to it.

If you think that money is “evil,” take a minute to ask yourself some questions.

1. “Why do I believe that money is evil?”
2. “Is my view colored by how my parents handled cash?”
3. “Do my friends have money, and do they use it well?”

Write your answers down on a piece of paper, and then read them aloud to yourself. Why? Because as long as you believe that money is “bad” you will not be able to make or keep much of it. It is very important that you understand the battle in your brain as you go about changing your thoughts on money. If you want to keep money flowing in your life and working for you, then define for yourself what type of wealthy person you want to be.

Once you have a clear picture of the type of person you envision yourself to be and how you will handle money, then you can move toward creating it in your personal life. All it takes is a bit of introspection and reworking your internal definitions on what it means to be wealthy.

Janine Bolon is the author of Money…It’s Not Just for Rich People! and Cash, Cars and College. She is also a radio talk show host and financial coach. Check out her web site, Smart Cents, Inc., for more tips on wealth accumulation and frugal living. Janine invites you to subscribe to her free newsletter, My 2Cents, which can be found on her website.

My former boss at the company I currently work for knows that I have a side interest that involves personal finance and the web. Obviously, I do not supply too many details to him as I prefer to maintain some level of anonymity on Consumerism Commentary, considering the personal information I’ve been posting since 2003. He contacted me today to make me aware of an article in today’s Wall Street Journal. (The article is available for free online, for now.)

The article addresses the trend of twentysomethings (I’m 31) sharing their personal financial information online using social networking websites. One of the social networking sites mentioned is NetWorthIQ. NetWorthIQ allows people to create profiles and update their financial standing every month. These profiles can be set to either public or private. You can even look at trends and comparisons between individuals.

While I like NetWorthIQ, I never got into using it much. I like keeping my information on my website, first of all. Also, I think the social networking aspect encourages comparisons between individuals or groups of individuals, which I’d rather not be a part of. I’m a fan of internal comparisons for tracking progress, but comparisons between people are almost meaningless. Also, balance sheet information doesn’t mean much without an income and expense report, which I don’t believe is supported by NetWorthIQ.

Nevertheless, I think it’s a great tool, especially if you want to take some of the work out of publishing your own reports.

The article also mentions Wesabe, which provides a way to access the information one might enter in software like Quicken from anywhere. The article didn’t mention Mint, which is still under testing, but it may turn out to be a better application than Wesabe.

Two additional websites sound interesting and are worth a look.

At other sites, such as the just-launched Covestor LLC, which allow investors to share their portfolio information, members manually input transaction data for their brokerage accounts or provide their account passwords to have the firm automatically track their trades. Members can choose to remain anonymous, and the actual dollar values of trades and specific holdings of each member always remains confidential, with only percentages displayed…

On Geezeo, members can create discussion groups with other users about specific financial topics. The site lets members create a consolidated view of their financial accounts and use text-messaging technology to get quick balance updates from their mobile phones. Starting this week, users will be able to provide feedback on financial products, such as student loans, credit cards or savings accounts.

The idea of tracking your finances publicly is gaining a lot of attention and popularity. I never thought this would be something that would catch on and have “mass appeal.” That’s the beauty of the internet—people with strange interests can come together to form communities, convincing those involved that their perceptions are “normal.”

I’ve been a user of Intuit Quicken for the past few years after being a loyal user of Microsoft Money (and MoneyDance earlier, when I felt I needed to run Linux on my home machine). While I think I’ve settled on the software that works best for me, I’m not completely satisfied.

I’m waiting to try out the up and coming Mint to see what features it might add for me, but until then, I’ll continue relying on Quicken for Windows.

The 2008 version of the software should be released in the next couple of months, so the new version is most likely finalized by now. If these improvements aren’t included by now, I’ll have to hope for the next version to be released a year from now.

So here are my ten suggestions for improvements, most of them minor enhancements. At the end of this post, I am giving away a free copy of Quicken Premier 2007, the version which is best for those customers with investments but no self-employment income to track. Read the rest of this article »