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Consensus View is Better Than Experts?

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In one point of view, “the masses” are wrong about financial issues (Part One and Part Two). On the other hand, some believe that the general populace on the whole outsmarts even the experts. That’s the basis of the book The Wisdom of Crowds by James Suroweicki.

To prove his points in his book, he has also created Consensus View. The website allows all visitors to predict the markets for the current day. The consensus success rates for “some markets” is above 60 percent, when 50 percent would imply no correlation. I’m not convinced; a real statistical study might show that the results are insignificant.

If you choose to take part in Consensus View’s experiment, you will be given the chance to predict the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, and 70 shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange, as well as 40 Futures Markets and 20 FX currency pairs.

Updated February 6, 2012 and originally published September 18, 2005. If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to the RSS feed or receive daily emails. Follow @ConsumerismComm on Twitter and visit our Facebook page for more updates.

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About the author

Luke Landes is the founder of Consumerism Commentary. He has been blogging and writing for the internet since 1995 and has been building online communities since 1991. Find out more about Luke Landes and follow him on Twitter. View all articles by .

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