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Jeremy Siegel’s Economic Outlook for 2011

This article was written by in Investing. 18 comments.


Jeremy Siegel, the author of Stocks for the Long Run, was correct with his prediction for the stock market comeback in 2009. Looking back, it may be easy to say that was an easier prediction due to the low starting point that year, but many experts thought the stock market had further to dive.

This year, Siegel expects a 4% increase in the stock market due to low interest rates and dividend-paying stocks. In this recent video, Jeremy butts heads with Robert Shiller, who thinks the stock market is currently not undervalued, and doesn’t have much room to increase this year.

Take a look at the discussion. Will you be investing in the stock market this year or waiting on the sidelines?


Can’t see the video?

Published or updated January 28, 2011. If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to the RSS feed or receive daily emails. Follow @ConsumerismComm on Twitter and visit our Facebook page for more updates.

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About the author

Luke Landes, also known as Flexo, is the founder of Consumerism Commentary. He has been blogging and writing for the internet since 1995 and has been building online communities since 1991. Find out more about him and follow Luke Landes on Twitter. View all articles by .

{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }

avatar MR ♦295 (Nickel)

Hmmm, Professor Siegel make a compelling argument for the Bulls in 2011! He flushed out some details that I didn’t think of.

Looks like it’s time to go dividend stock shopping :)

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avatar Bargaineering

I’ll be investing as I always have the last few years. Don’t time the market, just make sure you’re taking on the right amount of risk and wait. I’ve benefited from investing in the last year but it has nothing to do with me being a “good” investor. :)

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avatar krantcents

I agree with Bargaineering, I will continue to invest each and every month (dollar cost averaging) into an asset allocation I am comfortable.

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avatar Will @ HackingTheBank.com ♦258 (Nickel)

Timing the market is for traders trading with the bank’s money, and for broke people who listen to their broke friends. The only guarantee when it comes to the price of an investment is today’s price, and historical prices. Siegel and Shiller are both very smart guys, and I’ve read a lot of their stuff. Personally, I think Siegel excels at data mining and historical information. Shiller, in my opinion, is better at using the data for predictive purposes.

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avatar 4hendricks ♦248 (Cent)

We will be investing in the stock market – more buying and holding, but who knows.

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avatar Bobka ♦13 (Newbie)

Dr. Siegel is talking bullishly about a 4% projected return this year from investing in the often risky stock market. Not too long ago you could get a 4% return risk free by investing in an FDIC insured CD. My, how the times have changed!

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avatar skylog ♦368 (Nickel)

…how times have changed indeed. talking bullishly about a 4% projected return and being told he is being “waaaaaaaayyyyyy too confident.”

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avatar nickel

I’ll be investing the same as always. If it goes down, great. I get more shares. If it goes up, great. My portfolio will be larger.

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avatar Investor Junkie

Dr. Siegel is a perma-bull. He was correct with 2009, BUT totally wrong with 2007 and 2008.

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avatar Harm

The market might very well BE ‘fully valued’ by any number of criteria. That would not
preclude ANYTHING happening, a sharp spike up, another collapse a la 2008, or a long period
in a narrow trading range……
(or something else, LoL)
Predictions are guesses….

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avatar Investor Junkie

Also IMHO Shiller is more on the mark with his comments. It may go further up, but that doesn’t mean the market is cheap.

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avatar Investor Junkie

For a laugh from Jeremy Siegel read this from 2007 about 2008:

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/57853

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avatar gotr31 ♦224 (Cent)

It won’t change my investing. I will be doing the same thing as last year.

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avatar eric ♦1,549 (Half-Dollar)

I have to think on the bright side either way….but let’s hope it goes up :)

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avatar tbork84 ♦1,867 (Half-Dollar)

I look at it this way, if it goes up then my unrealized gains on my long term goals goes up. If it goes down I am able to buy more now. Thats the beauty of dollar cost averaging and not worrying about timing the market.

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avatar TakeitEZ ♦549 (Dime)

I think I will finally take my first step into the stock market this year. I am going to start by going the safe route (at least I believe it is the safe route) and invest in some index funds.

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avatar nimrodel ♦42 (Newbie)

I’m not currently at a point where I’m ready to invest (currently paying off debt as fast as possible). If I was going to invest this year, I’d just be putting my money into a few different ETFs.

Only 4% growth expected? I guess I’m getting a better return paying off my debt anyway…

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avatar journalist

at current low interest rates, it doesn’t make sense to keep your cash in the bank. more over, the USD should be getting weaker so you not only get zero returns, the “worth” of your cash gets devalued. it’s better to stay invested. I feel that the stock market has more room to go up but the tricky part comes when the government starts planning for their exit strategies. if you’re risk adverse, then look into some good dividend paying stocks and you would already be much better off.

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