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The Next Credit Crunch

This article was written by in Economy. 1 comment.


There are signs that the economy might be in more trouble in the near future. One of the symptoms of the recession was the credit crunch. Banks and other lending institutions tightened up their previously loose standards for extending credit, and in order to prop up their own organizations financially, banks held on to the cheap money afforded to them by the government rather than extending loans to small businesses needing the cash flow to expand or operate, extending the recession.

A number of policies were designed to help small businesses when practically-free loans from the government weren’t enough to encourage banks to do anything but prop up their balance sheets. The FDIC instituted a policy where they would insure noninterest-bearing accounts without a limit. This is different than the insurance consumers receive on up to $250,000 on savings and checking accounts. The extended FDIC coverage allows businesses to keep their operating accounts — which are mostly used for paying employees with direct deposit — at smaller banks, seen as being at risk for failing moreso than large, “too-big-to-fail” banks.

Captain Credit CrunchThis FDIC benefit is scheduled to end before January 1, 2013. The expected reaction is for small businesses to take their operating funds out of community banks and return to larger banks, where size is assumed to correlate to strength. Small banks, which have recently begun extending more credit to local businesses, will no longer have the funds to continue this practice.

There is a chance that the FDIC program will continue, but that requires dependency on politicians being interested in changing the direction it gave the FDIC and being willing to continue the expense, whether from government (public) sources or from fees received from FDIC member institutions.

At the same time the potential shift from community banks to large, national banks hangs over the head of those who are concerned about the possibility of another credit crunch, big banks have already reined in their lending. In the first quarter of 2012, credit card and bank lending has dropped.

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup cut their lending by a collective $24 billion in the first three months of the year. That was a change from last year when lending rose $34 billion at the nation’s four biggest banks in all of 2012.

Plan for the next credit crunch now

The individuals hurt the hardest during a credit crunch are people barely living paycheck to paycheck, relying on credit cards to meet their financial obligations, but by far the worst of the credit crunch is felt by small business owners who rely on bank credit, particularly during times of recession, to stay in business.

Families with the most exposure in a credit crunch can prepare by growing and nurturing an emergency fund. I’ve been promoting emergency funds during the best and worst economic times, and those who use the good times to shore up resources to survive the hard times make it through. It’s an economic policy as old as the Bible. Small business owners should take the same approach.

With a credit crunch, interest rates will continue to remain low, encouraging a money to flow as freely as possible. Those who qualify for borrowing with the stricter criteria in a credit crunch can take advantage of the opportunity to borrow money at low rates and invest in hard assets with a physical presence. Real estate and art come to mind.

Photo: mary_thompson
CNN, Fortune

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Preservation of capital is an important aspect of any financial plan, but in today’s economy, this is impossible without taking on some risk. At one time, you could confidently place any money you might need within one year in a high-yield savings account and be relatively confident that your money could buy at least as much a year in the future than it could buy the day you deposited your funds. Interest rates were relatively coordinated with the rate of inflation.

That’s not the case today. The Department of Labor released the latest inflation data. It should be no surprise to most consumers that the changes in the price of gas led to an increase in the energy index of 3.2 percent over the last twelve months (ending February). The inflation rate for all items is 2.9 percent. While the government-reported inflation rate doesn’t translate to the actual increase in expenses any one individual experiences year over year, it’s the best benchmark we currently have for a generalized view of the increase in prices.

And it’s the measure we use to determine how much purchasing power savers lose. If your savings account isn’t earning at least 2.9 percent after tax, you’re losing money in real terms by placing it in a bank. With banks offering less than 1 percent interest before taxes on their best high-yield savings accounts, purchasing power losses accelerate. Placing your cash under a mattress to earn zero interest is a worse idea, so are there any other options providing a safe way to maintain purchasing power?

Money BagsNot really. Using a savings account is great for funds you might need in an emergency, because you can access the money quickly without worrying about selling an asset. Savers have to understand that having an emergency fund is a compromise; in return for the safety of an FDIC-insured account, savers waive the right to preserve real value, at least in today’s economy.

Any other options for preserving capital introduce risk.

  • Investing in the stock market. Despite some recent frenzy about the stock market, with prices of the major indexes reaching near-term highs and day-over-day increases exceeding the best-performing day of the year thus far, there have also been daily price decreases reflecting the worst performance of the year. The stock market is incredibly volatile. For the long-term, it’s a good place to be, but there’s no guarantee that your capital will be preserved for when you need it.
  • Buying real estate. For years, families saw the house they live in as a way to store their wealth. The belief was unfortunately based on the myth that real estate values never decrease. Well, any asset can find itself in a bubble, whether they be tulips, stocks, or houses, and people who relied on real estate’s ever-increasing value to make a living have had a difficult time in recent years. It’s been terrible news for real estate flippers, but the effects hit single-house homeowners just as hard.

    Although timing the market is always dangerous, with low prices and low interest rates, if you can qualify and if the time is right for your family, now could be the right time to buy a house, particularly if you’re looking to live there for a long time.

  • Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). You can buy this investment product directly from the U.S. Treasury. Twice a year, you receive interest as well as an adjustment to your principal balance based on the inflation rate. This is basically a bond that will only lose value in the event of deflation. If you must sell TIPS after the value has dipped below your initial investment, you will still receive your full initial investment back.

    There’s no risk in losing money, and this is the closest you might be able to get to true preservation of capital during inflation. Keep in mind, however, that the government’s reported inflation value doesn’t necessarily reflect any one household’s experienced rate of inflation. The government’s rate used for calculating TIPS adjustments, the CPI-U, uses the prices of a combination of goods that weights items in a way that might not be relevant to most consumers.

  • Buying gold. Investing in gold is traditionally a good way to hedge against inflation, but the price of gold fluctuates. Like all commodities, the value of gold at any particular time is subject to the whims of commodities traders. An investment in gold is not as stable as its reputation. The price fluctuation may be due to fluctuations in the value of the dollar or of any other fiat currency, but the cause is irrelevant because the U.S. dollar is the world’s standard for currency, and if that ever changes, it would be another currency or combination of currencies that becomes the standard, not a commodity like gold. The days of the gold standard are over.

    Furthermore, most people who invest in gold use ETFs or mutual funds due to convenience. It would be inefficient and expensive to store and secure a significant amount of physical gold bars. Once you are dealing with electronic trades rather than a physical manifestation of metal, you’re subjecting yourself even more to the whim of the financial industry.

With low interest rates and increasing inflation, this may be a good time, from a financial perspective, to borrow money. You can do more with someone else’s money, repaying the loan with money valued less in the future. Borrowing money is of course not a good idea for people who could find themselves in trouble with debt, as interest costs could spiral out of control, but if you look at the numbers, borrowers are getting a much better deal, relatively speaking, than savers.

In today’s economy, if you are preserving your money, how are you doing so?

Photo: Lord Jim

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Will You Buy the iPad 3?

This article was written by in Consumer. 16 comments.

All signs are pointing to Apple releasing the latest iteration of its popular tablet this coming week. I gave in last year and purchased the original iPad, and I made this decision just days before the iPad 2 was announced. Now, tech geeks are expecting the iPad 3 to hit to streets this week. The iPad was my first Apple-branded product. I’ve never been a fan of Apple’s computers, with my objections stemming from everything from the keyboard layout to the graphical user interface. Nevertheless, I’ve used the iPad almost daily.

I won’t upgrade yet I’m satisfied with my original iPad, so I see now reason to spend money on the latest device.

iPadAre you planning to buy an iPad 3?

Here are a few articles I’ve discovered recently that I’d like to share.

Neal from Wealth Pilgrim has reviewed the social lending website, Prosper. Peer-to-peer and social lending is an intriguing idea. I think tools like Prosper, helping borrowers and lenders work with each other without layers of third parties like banks, are needed. It’s slightly more efficient, but not free from regulation. Without a trusted party between borrowers and lenders, large-scale borrowing and lending would be risky. At the same time, most financial institutions have too much overhead.

Social lending isn’t perfect. I couldn’t loan money to a friend at a decent rate through either Prosper or Lending Club because the state in which he lives has anti-usury laws that prevented a loan at the interest rate he qualified for. I couldn’t easily and directly invest in a basket of loans through a service because the state in which I live wasn’t ready to allow this type of investment opportunity.

Jim from Bargaineering explains how to print USPS postage at home for free. I didn’t take this approach a few years ago when I was selling old text books online through Amazon.com; media mail rates was not available for online printing. Now that media mail rates are available, it is easy to save money printing postage online for those who ship books, CDs, and video often.

The latest Carnival of Personal Finance was hosted earlier this week on Well-Heeled Blog. The Carnival included a number of excellent personal finance articles, as well as my article about modifying your behavior to improve your finances. The Carnival followed the Little Price’s journey to financial enlightenment. It’s always fun to read a Carnival that has an entertaining theme.

Photo: Veronica Belmont

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People who borrow money generally understand that they will eventually need to pay borrowed money back to the lender. This understanding, whether codified in a contract or not in any particular case, makes lending and borrowing money work as an economic mechanism. It’s interesting that regardless of what’s written in a contract, most debt can be legally ignored. Borrowers may feel bound by their pride to honor commitments, but every state in the country has laws that prevent lenders from chasing after deadbeat borrowers after a certain amount of time.

Time-barred debts are subject to a statute of limitations. After a certain amount of time passes with a borrower unable or unwilling to pay back a loan, the lender will no longer be able to sue the borrower for uncollected debt. The lender can still contact the borrower and try to convince him or her to pay back the loan, but the lender’s legal rights to the funds are limited.

This doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea to wait for the statute of limitations to pass on all your debt in order to avoid your obligations. There are consequences if you don’t pay back debt. Most importantly, the three credit reporting bureaus will significantly decrease your credit score, and it could take a long time for that number to return to normal. This will affect your ability to qualify for more loans, mortgages, and credit cards in the future.

This is a dilemma many homeowners have considered recently; with the market value of houses sharply decreasing in the last few years, and the resulting financial reality of owing the bank more on the mortgage than the house is worth, some in this situation have considered walking away from the house and mortgage. In some cases, this could be a tactic that is more financially responsible than continuing to sink money every month into a depreciating asset. Families considering this option have to weigh the consequences, including not being able to qualify for a mortgage again for many years, against the emotion-based drive to honor financial commitments.

Although lenders are legally barred from suing borrowers after the statute of limitations for a particular debt has passed, they might still try. If you’re able to show a judge that the debt is time-barred and no longer legally collectible, you have nothing to worry about other than the consequences.

Credit cards and other open accounts like home equity lines of credit, written contracts, oral agreements, and promissory notes may have different statutes of limitations, and each differs by state, as well. Here’s a list by state of time-barred debts.

The clock starts ticking on the statute of limitations from the day you miss your first payment. The moment you send a payment to the lender, no matter how small, the clock resets. For example, if the statute of limitations on credit card debt in your state is seven years, and it’s been six years since you’ve made a payment, you may determine that it makes more financial sense to refuse to make a payment for one more year rather than negotiate with the lender. If you are in financial difficulty and don’t expect to ever be able to pay off the debt, paying even a small amount means you’ll need to wait another seven years after making the small payment before you’ll be legally protected from paying back the debt.

Not all debt is time-barred; student loans backed or issued by the government have no statute of limitations. Anything you borrow under any of the loan programs that qualify in this category can never be ignored. The lenders are often willing to negotiate the terms in order to help you make payments you can afford, but these students loans are, for the most part, legally stuck with borrowers until the lenders are satisfied.

A few questions for discussion:

  • Do you think it’s right that borrowers can avoid agreements by patiently waiting for the statute of limitations to pass?
  • Have you ever been sued for debt you didn’t need to legally pay back?
  • Have you inadvertently restarted the clock by paying a small amount to a lender when it might have been better to wait?
  • Are you dealing with the credit consequences of letting a debt expire?

Note: I am not a lawyer, and nothing written on Consumerism Commentary constitutes legal advice. Always check with an attorney before making any decisions regarding the law.

Photo: Dave Stokes
Federal Trade Commission

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Good Debt and Bad Debt

by Flexo
See-saw

Misuse of credit can destroy a family’s financial life. A household can crumble under the weight of debt, whether it has increased from a poor house-purchasing decision, a drastic change in the real estate market, a shopping addiction, an unexpected medical bill, or the lack of preparedness for an emergency. It’s no surprise people consider ... Continue reading this article…

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Suze Orman’s New Prepaid Debit Card: The Approved Card

by Flexo
Suze Orman

As Ron Lieber reported in the New York Times, personal finance guru Suze Orman is launching her own debit card brand, the Approved Card, following in the footsteps of music mogul Russell Simmons and his Rush Cards. Suze Orman’s debit card will be a prepaid debit card, ensuring customers using the card can spend generally ... Continue reading this article…

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The Best Credit Cards 2012

by Flexo

If you follow credit card offers like I do, you might have noticed that this past year was particularly exciting. Credit card issuers have been heavily marketing products in search of customers, spending more advertising dollars per customer than they have in recent years, and increasing rewards for the best customers. For individuals who have ... Continue reading this article…

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Year End Reminder: Fund Your IRA Now

by Flexo

These last few weeks in December present a good time to prepare your finances for the coming year. My personal goal is to start January 1 on a good note, moving my life forward. In the grand scheme putting your finances in order takes a back seat to cleaning up your life as a whole, ... Continue reading this article…

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