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The Next Credit Crunch

This article was written by in Economy. 1 comment.


There are signs that the economy might be in more trouble in the near future. One of the symptoms of the recession was the credit crunch. Banks and other lending institutions tightened up their previously loose standards for extending credit, and in order to prop up their own organizations financially, banks held on to the cheap money afforded to them by the government rather than extending loans to small businesses needing the cash flow to expand or operate, extending the recession.

A number of policies were designed to help small businesses when practically-free loans from the government weren’t enough to encourage banks to do anything but prop up their balance sheets. The FDIC instituted a policy where they would insure noninterest-bearing accounts without a limit. This is different than the insurance consumers receive on up to $250,000 on savings and checking accounts. The extended FDIC coverage allows businesses to keep their operating accounts — which are mostly used for paying employees with direct deposit — at smaller banks, seen as being at risk for failing moreso than large, “too-big-to-fail” banks.

Captain Credit CrunchThis FDIC benefit is scheduled to end before January 1, 2013. The expected reaction is for small businesses to take their operating funds out of community banks and return to larger banks, where size is assumed to correlate to strength. Small banks, which have recently begun extending more credit to local businesses, will no longer have the funds to continue this practice.

There is a chance that the FDIC program will continue, but that requires dependency on politicians being interested in changing the direction it gave the FDIC and being willing to continue the expense, whether from government (public) sources or from fees received from FDIC member institutions.

At the same time the potential shift from community banks to large, national banks hangs over the head of those who are concerned about the possibility of another credit crunch, big banks have already reined in their lending. In the first quarter of 2012, credit card and bank lending has dropped.

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup cut their lending by a collective $24 billion in the first three months of the year. That was a change from last year when lending rose $34 billion at the nation’s four biggest banks in all of 2012.

Plan for the next credit crunch now

The individuals hurt the hardest during a credit crunch are people barely living paycheck to paycheck, relying on credit cards to meet their financial obligations, but by far the worst of the credit crunch is felt by small business owners who rely on bank credit, particularly during times of recession, to stay in business.

Families with the most exposure in a credit crunch can prepare by growing and nurturing an emergency fund. I’ve been promoting emergency funds during the best and worst economic times, and those who use the good times to shore up resources to survive the hard times make it through. It’s an economic policy as old as the Bible. Small business owners should take the same approach.

With a credit crunch, interest rates will continue to remain low, encouraging a money to flow as freely as possible. Those who qualify for borrowing with the stricter criteria in a credit crunch can take advantage of the opportunity to borrow money at low rates and invest in hard assets with a physical presence. Real estate and art come to mind.

Photo: mary_thompson
CNN, Fortune

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Preservation of capital is an important aspect of any financial plan, but in today’s economy, this is impossible without taking on some risk. At one time, you could confidently place any money you might need within one year in a high-yield savings account and be relatively confident that your money could buy at least as much a year in the future than it could buy the day you deposited your funds. Interest rates were relatively coordinated with the rate of inflation.

That’s not the case today. The Department of Labor released the latest inflation data. It should be no surprise to most consumers that the changes in the price of gas led to an increase in the energy index of 3.2 percent over the last twelve months (ending February). The inflation rate for all items is 2.9 percent. While the government-reported inflation rate doesn’t translate to the actual increase in expenses any one individual experiences year over year, it’s the best benchmark we currently have for a generalized view of the increase in prices.

And it’s the measure we use to determine how much purchasing power savers lose. If your savings account isn’t earning at least 2.9 percent after tax, you’re losing money in real terms by placing it in a bank. With banks offering less than 1 percent interest before taxes on their best high-yield savings accounts, purchasing power losses accelerate. Placing your cash under a mattress to earn zero interest is a worse idea, so are there any other options providing a safe way to maintain purchasing power?

Money BagsNot really. Using a savings account is great for funds you might need in an emergency, because you can access the money quickly without worrying about selling an asset. Savers have to understand that having an emergency fund is a compromise; in return for the safety of an FDIC-insured account, savers waive the right to preserve real value, at least in today’s economy.

Any other options for preserving capital introduce risk.

  • Investing in the stock market. Despite some recent frenzy about the stock market, with prices of the major indexes reaching near-term highs and day-over-day increases exceeding the best-performing day of the year thus far, there have also been daily price decreases reflecting the worst performance of the year. The stock market is incredibly volatile. For the long-term, it’s a good place to be, but there’s no guarantee that your capital will be preserved for when you need it.
  • Buying real estate. For years, families saw the house they live in as a way to store their wealth. The belief was unfortunately based on the myth that real estate values never decrease. Well, any asset can find itself in a bubble, whether they be tulips, stocks, or houses, and people who relied on real estate’s ever-increasing value to make a living have had a difficult time in recent years. It’s been terrible news for real estate flippers, but the effects hit single-house homeowners just as hard.

    Although timing the market is always dangerous, with low prices and low interest rates, if you can qualify and if the time is right for your family, now could be the right time to buy a house, particularly if you’re looking to live there for a long time.

  • Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). You can buy this investment product directly from the U.S. Treasury. Twice a year, you receive interest as well as an adjustment to your principal balance based on the inflation rate. This is basically a bond that will only lose value in the event of deflation. If you must sell TIPS after the value has dipped below your initial investment, you will still receive your full initial investment back.

    There’s no risk in losing money, and this is the closest you might be able to get to true preservation of capital during inflation. Keep in mind, however, that the government’s reported inflation value doesn’t necessarily reflect any one household’s experienced rate of inflation. The government’s rate used for calculating TIPS adjustments, the CPI-U, uses the prices of a combination of goods that weights items in a way that might not be relevant to most consumers.

  • Buying gold. Investing in gold is traditionally a good way to hedge against inflation, but the price of gold fluctuates. Like all commodities, the value of gold at any particular time is subject to the whims of commodities traders. An investment in gold is not as stable as its reputation. The price fluctuation may be due to fluctuations in the value of the dollar or of any other fiat currency, but the cause is irrelevant because the U.S. dollar is the world’s standard for currency, and if that ever changes, it would be another currency or combination of currencies that becomes the standard, not a commodity like gold. The days of the gold standard are over.

    Furthermore, most people who invest in gold use ETFs or mutual funds due to convenience. It would be inefficient and expensive to store and secure a significant amount of physical gold bars. Once you are dealing with electronic trades rather than a physical manifestation of metal, you’re subjecting yourself even more to the whim of the financial industry.

With low interest rates and increasing inflation, this may be a good time, from a financial perspective, to borrow money. You can do more with someone else’s money, repaying the loan with money valued less in the future. Borrowing money is of course not a good idea for people who could find themselves in trouble with debt, as interest costs could spiral out of control, but if you look at the numbers, borrowers are getting a much better deal, relatively speaking, than savers.

In today’s economy, if you are preserving your money, how are you doing so?

Photo: Lord Jim

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Improving your financial situation requires more than just trying harder. People who write financial websites offering advice often think or imply that the reason for financial misfortune is ignorance of the basics. Recently, there was one website that claimed that the only thing people need to know was spend less than you earn, as if taking this to heart is the single solution to getting your finances on the right track.

There is no switch that you can just turn on, for the most part. In some cases, particularly where someone experiences a major emotional setback — “hits rock bottom” — changing your direction in place works, but that could mean losing a house or destroying a family relationship. A devastating situation isn’t guaranteed for everyone and you may not want to wait until you reach such a low point.

MoneyIf you’ve been living in debt for the entirety of your adult life, you may have an epiphany of some sort and turn yourself around with just the knowledge that your net worth needs to increase at the end of each month in order to become financially independent, but for most people, changing behavior takes much more than desire.

There are certain things you can do to help yourself — and your brain — accept that you need to start improving your financial situations for the sake of your future self and family.

Replace old habits with new habits

Much behavior can be reduced to patterns and habits. Breaking a habit, like emotional spending, can be incredibly difficult because of the comfort that has developed through years of participating in the activity. Shoppers who derive pleasure from spending money may be in uncontrollable debt, and use shopping in difficult times to feel better. Of course, with more shopping and spending more money than is available, this person could experience emotionally difficult situations due to the lack of finances, yet still seek to cure those negative feelings by shopping.

Replace the reaction of shopping with something that makes you feel better without damaging your personal finances. Exercising releases chemicals in the brain that, for many people, enable happy feelings, so one of the best options for replacing a bad financial habit is exercise. Whenever you feel the urge to do something that you know is harmful to your finances, choose to run around the block or work out in a gym.

It might be difficult to make this change at first, but the goal is to make a new habit that can be triggered in place of your old habit. For some time, you may want to overlap both reactions, but after several weeks of consciously using your new habit, you should be able to successfully replace the old.

Resist temptation by making it difficult or inconvenient

Some financial advisers and gurus suggest freezing your credit card in ice or keeping your emergency fund at a bank that’s difficult to access. The more barriers you can place between yourself and your bad financial behaviors (in this case, using your credit card or dipping into your emergency fund), the more success you’ll have in avoiding these temptations.

Combining barriers with habits can be successful, too. Rather than purchasing items from Amazon on impulse, create a habit of waiting 24 hours between your desire and your action. This barrier of time gives you the opportunity to re-evaluate your decision. Twenty-four hours later, you may be in a different mood and decide that you don’t need the item you intended to purchase as bad as you thought you did.

Remove barriers to good financial behavior

While you’re adding barriers to prevent bad financial behavior, you may want to think about whether you already have barriers preventing you from making good financial decisions. Although the stock market has been on a rally lately, medium-term performance has not been great, and the investing industry has attracted a bad reputation through and following the recession and credit crunch. The fear of losing money may be preventing young people from investing in the stock market.

Many investment advisers say that you should evaluate your risk and only invest in a way that makes you comfortable with your possible losses, but an investor’s level of risk aversion could be tied to his or her feelings about the stock market. Risk profile measured this way would then fluctuate. One possible outcome from feeling good about the stock market and willing to take on risk during times of confidence about Wall Street while feeling nervous when the media is taking the financial industry to task is the unprofitable accidental strategy of buying high and selling low.

If you’re young and would like to save for retirement, with a goal of leaving your work behind one day with enough money to pay your expenses, you can’t ignore the stock market. A diversified portfolio may not make you rich over time, but there’s a good chance you’ll be able to retire.

Change your words

The words you choose to describe your financial behaviors will have an effect on your approach to your money. For example, take “investment” and “expense.” I mentioned this phenomenon in my editor’s note after Jennifer Calonia’s article about wedding planning and spending.

One way people often justify or rationalize expenses is by calling them “investments.” For example, one might say, “Spending a large amount of money for a wedding is an investment in your relationship.” Someone else might say, “Going to a private university is an investment in your future.” You should only invest in something when you receive an asset in return, and you are planning for the value of that asset to increase over time.

You may be able to argue that the asset you receive in return for a wedding is a partner who stays with you for the rest of your life. You may receive an emotional asset in return. But in order to be truthful with yourself, consider whether you’re using the term “investment” to justify paying more for a ceremony than you need to. As I’ve written previously, spending money for once-in-a-lifetime event is not a bad way to spend money if you can afford it, but calling it an investment is just a way for you to feel better about your resulting lack of money.

In return for your expense for your college-level education, you may receive assets: your ability to earn an increased income over time when compared with someone with just a high school diploma, possibly, cognitive skills that help you succeed in the world regardless of your job, career, or income, and, possibly, connections that you retain for the rest of your life, helping you with career moves and friendships. The values of these things may increase over time, making the term “investment” more legitimate. The trouble appears when you pay a higher price for education than necessary, calling it an investment.

If you ask anyone who has any experience with finance, a house is an asset and a mortgage is a liability. Yet, some financial gurus continue to insist that a house is a liability. This doesn’t make any sense from a purely financial perspective, but if you look at the connotations of the words instead of the meanings — or if you look at the broader sense of “liability” rather than its financial sense — these gurus might have an argument. A house that does not create cash flow for you (that is, a house that is not an investment with rental income) should be avoided as much as possible. Anything that costs you money is a liability in the sense that is drags your finances down. Although it’s not financially accurate, considering bad assets “liabilities” encourages you to eliminate as many of these as possible and to replace them with income-producing assets.

Politicians and activists use word choice to influence their constituents’ opinions all the time. That’s why we have terms like “pro-life” and “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.” It’s a form of manipulation, but if you’re using this technique to benefit your financial situation, no one can blame you for misdirection.

Using these tricks — replacing old habits with new habits, adding barriers to bad behaviors, removing barriers to good choices, and changing the words to describe what you do — can help you overcome the difficulty of putting what you know about “spending less than you earn” into effect. There’s a bridge between knowledge and action, and unfortunately, many people mistakenly think that the reason so many people in the United States are suffering financially is due to lack of knowledge. The prescribe solutions like money management class in high school and other financial literacy initiatives. Having more information is not going to solve financial illiteracy. On an individual or family level, taking steps to modify behavior will certainly move finances in the right direction.

khrawlings

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After several delays, the Federal Reserve Board has approved Capital One’s request to purchase ING Direct and ShareBuilder. This deal has been in the works for a while. When ING Direct’s parent company was bailed out, the Dutch government gave the condition that it must divest its business in the United States. Several buyers courted ING Direct, and rumors circulated until the announcement that Capital One was the winning bidder in the summer of 2011.

Capital One is considered a financial holding company, and this wouldn’t be the first time the company has grown through acquisition. Capital One has purchased Chevy Chase Bank and North Fork Bank recently.

ING DirectThe Federal Reserve gave the public a significant amount of time to comment on the proposed acquisition. In its forty-page decision, the Fed noted that a “large number of commenters supported the proposal,” while a “significant number of commenters opposed the proposal.” Many on the opposition cited Capital One’s parallel plans to purchase sub-prime credit card assets from HSBC, as well as Capital One’s record in lending to minorities and small businesses.

Regardless of the concerns, the Federal Reserve has given the green light to Capital One to move forward. I’ve been a long-time customer of ING Direct and ShareBuilder, and I’m taking a wait-and-see approach. I’m not ready to switch banks yet, but over the last few years, ING Direct’s record in offering a high-yield savings account has been overshadowed by other banks offering higher interest. I don’t waste my time chasing interest rates, so despite its sub-par interest rates, I’ve kept most of my business and personal cash at ING Direct, including my emergency fund.

Judging from comments by readers and others in the financial community, Capital One and ING Direct have vastly different reputations. Capital One’s is based mainly on customer services within its credit card businesses, while ING Direct’s is based mainly on those of us who discovered the online bank when it was leading its competitors with high interest rates for its popular Orange Savings Account.

It’s unclear what will happen to ING Direct and ShareBuilder in the future. Capital One has pledged to bring more features to ING Direct account holders, like full-service checking and ATM deposits. These features may be appreciated by customers, but if they come at a cost of lowered interest rates and insufficient customer service, it’s unclear whether consumers will be pleased in the end. Capital One would also bring its suite of other banking products to ING Direct customers, like loans.

Are you a customer of ING Direct or Capital One Bank? What are your expectations for post-acquisition service?

Federal Reserve [pdf]

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