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Government-Reported Inflation

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Over the twelve months ending with March 2012, the increase in the consumer price index (CPI-U) as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, often referred to as the inflation rate, is 2.7 percent (2.3 percent if you exclude food and energy). While these numbers are below the historically-cited norm for inflation, 3 percent, the numbers are still troubling for some people.

Government-reported increases in the consumer price index do not tie to any individual’s experienced increase in the cost of living. No person can assume that if wealth grows by the rate of inflation that life is just as affordable as it was a year ago. For example, if my income was $100,000 in 2011 and $102,700 in 2012, although my salary would be keeping pace with inflation, it’s likely that I still would find that this year’s income would not afford me as much as last year’s income was able to afford me.

Helium balloon inflationWith $100,000 in a high-yield savings account, the $750 I would have earned in before-tax interest not only loses to government-reported inflation, it would be pathetic compared to any rate of increase of expenses I experienced personally.

Part of the problem is that the CPI-U is calculated by measuring the change of price of a variety of consumer goods, but each type of good is weighted according to its importance. The level of importance is taken as an average importance across all citizens based in or near cities in the United States. Thus, the weighting may not be appropriate for any one individual. For example, as of the last CPI-U calculation, gasoline for vehicle fuel was weighted 5.7 percent. 5.7 percent of the year-over-year increase in consumer prices can be attributed to the increase in gas prices.

Any one family’s exposure to the cost of gasoline could easily be greater than 5.7 percent. A household with two incomes might involve a husband and wife who both commute an hour or more to, and an hour or more from, their places of work. For a family like this, the effect of an increase in gas prices could be much more devastating to their finances than the CPI-U would indicate. The increase in this category year-over-year is 9.0 percent. So if for any family, gasoline accounts for more than 5.7 percent of all expenses, the real cost of living would have increased more than the reported inflation rate.

We are often concerned with finding investments that provide a return higher than inflation. Financial planners consider inflation one of many benchmarks. If you want to maintain purchasing power with your funds, you’d look for a low-risk investment that meets or stays on par with the rate of inflation. The government even offers inflation-protected securities, whose yields are designed to artificially keep pace with the rate of inflation, thus providing investors a method of investing with a guarantee of not losing “purchasing power.”

The comparison between investment returns as experienced by one individual and a calculation of an average increase of prices is invalid. Financial experts continue to use the average inflation rate as a benchmark for individuals because it’s easy and can seem to apply to an entire population at once — even if it really applies to no one.

The criticism of the CPI-U as a personal rate of inflation doesn’t end with the idea that an average measurement doesn’t apply to any one individual. The method of calculating inflation has changed over time, and modern calculations are criticized for masking the truth. If the rate of inflation were to be calculated the same way it had been four decades ago, the rate would be significantly higher. The public is sensitive to bad economic news, and it’s safer for the government officials who are in power to continue to report subdued numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics should be free from political influence, but that’s an impossible ideal, especially over the course of a generation or two.

As a result of the realities behind criticism of the inflation rate, real inflation in the cost of living is destroying your net worth. Inflation keeps investors chasing returns that, while being better than earning nothing or losing money, are not high enough to continue a standard of living. Fifteen years ago, the most popular television sets might have cost an average of about $500. This was before LCD technology and high-definition became widespread. Today, the average cost of the most popular televisions might be $1,000. Today’s LED-backlit LCD HDTVs, while $1,000 today, would have cost more than $10,000 a few years ago when the technology was new. So in one sense, advancements in technology lower consumer costs, but offsetting that reduction is the consumer demand for better equipment, and that demand outpaces the decline in prices. Nobody’s buying the first generation iPad today.

Photo: Kai Hendry
Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Today on the Consumerism Commentary Podcast, Jay Frosting talks with Julie Clow, author of The Work Revolution.

They talk about differing energy cycles, ditching time cards & meetings, and measuring impact instead of employee activities.

Consumerism Commentary Podcast
The Work Revolution: S06E25 / 155

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Table of contents

The Work Revolution on Amazon[00:00] Introduction from Jay Frosting
[00:32] Interview with Julie Clow
[00:42] Work is now global and 24/7, leading to over-saturation
[04:25] We shouldn’t use rules leftover from assembly line businesses
[06:26] Questioning assumptions about schedules, time cards and meetings
[08:06] Work doesn’t need to seem unpleasant
[11:10] Julie’s quiz to determine how poorly your business rates on a freedom scale
[17:18] Measuring impact instead of activities
[21:41] Implementing a Results-Only Work Environment as a startup vs. as an existing business
[22:40] Employee freedom leads to more responsibility and accountability
[25:07] Humans have different energy cycles
[29:15] End

We always welcome feedback from listeners. If you have any comments for this episode or for any other, or if you have suggestions for future episodes, please leave us comments here or email us at podcast at this domain name.

Theme music by Mindcube.

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Preservation of capital is an important aspect of any financial plan, but in today’s economy, this is impossible without taking on some risk. At one time, you could confidently place any money you might need within one year in a high-yield savings account and be relatively confident that your money could buy at least as much a year in the future than it could buy the day you deposited your funds. Interest rates were relatively coordinated with the rate of inflation.

That’s not the case today. The Department of Labor released the latest inflation data. It should be no surprise to most consumers that the changes in the price of gas led to an increase in the energy index of 3.2 percent over the last twelve months (ending February). The inflation rate for all items is 2.9 percent. While the government-reported inflation rate doesn’t translate to the actual increase in expenses any one individual experiences year over year, it’s the best benchmark we currently have for a generalized view of the increase in prices.

And it’s the measure we use to determine how much purchasing power savers lose. If your savings account isn’t earning at least 2.9 percent after tax, you’re losing money in real terms by placing it in a bank. With banks offering less than 1 percent interest before taxes on their best high-yield savings accounts, purchasing power losses accelerate. Placing your cash under a mattress to earn zero interest is a worse idea, so are there any other options providing a safe way to maintain purchasing power?

Money BagsNot really. Using a savings account is great for funds you might need in an emergency, because you can access the money quickly without worrying about selling an asset. Savers have to understand that having an emergency fund is a compromise; in return for the safety of an FDIC-insured account, savers waive the right to preserve real value, at least in today’s economy.

Any other options for preserving capital introduce risk.

  • Investing in the stock market. Despite some recent frenzy about the stock market, with prices of the major indexes reaching near-term highs and day-over-day increases exceeding the best-performing day of the year thus far, there have also been daily price decreases reflecting the worst performance of the year. The stock market is incredibly volatile. For the long-term, it’s a good place to be, but there’s no guarantee that your capital will be preserved for when you need it.
  • Buying real estate. For years, families saw the house they live in as a way to store their wealth. The belief was unfortunately based on the myth that real estate values never decrease. Well, any asset can find itself in a bubble, whether they be tulips, stocks, or houses, and people who relied on real estate’s ever-increasing value to make a living have had a difficult time in recent years. It’s been terrible news for real estate flippers, but the effects hit single-house homeowners just as hard.

    Although timing the market is always dangerous, with low prices and low interest rates, if you can qualify and if the time is right for your family, now could be the right time to buy a house, particularly if you’re looking to live there for a long time.

  • Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). You can buy this investment product directly from the U.S. Treasury. Twice a year, you receive interest as well as an adjustment to your principal balance based on the inflation rate. This is basically a bond that will only lose value in the event of deflation. If you must sell TIPS after the value has dipped below your initial investment, you will still receive your full initial investment back.

    There’s no risk in losing money, and this is the closest you might be able to get to true preservation of capital during inflation. Keep in mind, however, that the government’s reported inflation value doesn’t necessarily reflect any one household’s experienced rate of inflation. The government’s rate used for calculating TIPS adjustments, the CPI-U, uses the prices of a combination of goods that weights items in a way that might not be relevant to most consumers.

  • Buying gold. Investing in gold is traditionally a good way to hedge against inflation, but the price of gold fluctuates. Like all commodities, the value of gold at any particular time is subject to the whims of commodities traders. An investment in gold is not as stable as its reputation. The price fluctuation may be due to fluctuations in the value of the dollar or of any other fiat currency, but the cause is irrelevant because the U.S. dollar is the world’s standard for currency, and if that ever changes, it would be another currency or combination of currencies that becomes the standard, not a commodity like gold. The days of the gold standard are over.

    Furthermore, most people who invest in gold use ETFs or mutual funds due to convenience. It would be inefficient and expensive to store and secure a significant amount of physical gold bars. Once you are dealing with electronic trades rather than a physical manifestation of metal, you’re subjecting yourself even more to the whim of the financial industry.

With low interest rates and increasing inflation, this may be a good time, from a financial perspective, to borrow money. You can do more with someone else’s money, repaying the loan with money valued less in the future. Borrowing money is of course not a good idea for people who could find themselves in trouble with debt, as interest costs could spiral out of control, but if you look at the numbers, borrowers are getting a much better deal, relatively speaking, than savers.

In today’s economy, if you are preserving your money, how are you doing so?

Photo: Lord Jim

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A group of fresh, unemployed lawyers have banded together to sue law schools. 73 alumni have filed at least fifteen class-action lawsuits, alleging the schools inflated employment figures and salary data to attract students and increase rankings. The real goal of the lawsuits seems to be to effect systemic change in the education industry and associations that accredit law schools, like the American Bar Association.

Schools are in the business of generating alumni, and to a great extent, use as many marketing tricks that any company uses in order to influence public opinion. It’s true that a 90% graduate employment rate looks better than a 75% rate on paper, and I’d be more inclined to choose a school with a higher employment rate, with all other factors being equal. But a 90% graduate employment rate doesn’t guarantee that I would receive the job I want after graduation, even if I were in the top 10% of the class.

Furthermore, I’ve come to the conclusion over the years that any statistic used for marketing purposes is subject to manipulation in an attempt to further the goals of marketing. Hard numbers give the impression of fact. From an early age, we’re trained to believe that one plus one equals two, in all circumstances, and numbers are truth. Statistics can be misleading in many ways, and are used more often to try to convince others of a point of view rather than quantify facts in reality.

Law school graduationThe group of lawyers probably can’t prove that the blame for their unemployment situation rests with the law schools. There are many factors that contribute to unemployment, including the overall economy, local job markets, and the effort, skills, and self-marketability of each alumnus. It doesn’t appear as if the former students are suing to have the schools compensate them for the lack of expected income from working, but they are suing to enlighten the public to the issue of misleading statistics throughout the educational industry.

Mutual funds must advertise that “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Even if a graduate employment rate were perfectly measured and accurately reflected exactly what a potential student understood the number to be, a good rate today is no indication that the rate will continue to be high by the time the school awards a degree or certification. If my index mutual fund returned 12% last year and lost 8% this year, I can’t sue the fund manager or the stock market for not providing the dividends I was hoping for. If fraud was involved, it might be a different situation. Perhaps misleading statistics like graduate employment rates are somewhat fraudulent, but I don’t see a parallel as schools do not typically promise that students will be employed at the level they’d like after graduation — and in the case of lawyers, after passing the bar exam.

There might be better ways of raising the issue of misleading statistics in the marketing endeavors in which institutes of education engage. Using the courts to make a point is only one tool that’s available to increase awareness of an issue. When you’re a hammer, though, everything looks like a nail.

Several years ago, while I was completing my Masters in Business Administration degree, I considered attending law school. Ultimately, I decided not to pursue a law degree and to focus my energy on my business instead. I think I made the right decision.

Photo: CubanRefugee
WNYC

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