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The Next Credit Crunch

This article was written by in Economy. 1 comment.


There are signs that the economy might be in more trouble in the near future. One of the symptoms of the recession was the credit crunch. Banks and other lending institutions tightened up their previously loose standards for extending credit, and in order to prop up their own organizations financially, banks held on to the cheap money afforded to them by the government rather than extending loans to small businesses needing the cash flow to expand or operate, extending the recession.

A number of policies were designed to help small businesses when practically-free loans from the government weren’t enough to encourage banks to do anything but prop up their balance sheets. The FDIC instituted a policy where they would insure noninterest-bearing accounts without a limit. This is different than the insurance consumers receive on up to $250,000 on savings and checking accounts. The extended FDIC coverage allows businesses to keep their operating accounts — which are mostly used for paying employees with direct deposit — at smaller banks, seen as being at risk for failing moreso than large, “too-big-to-fail” banks.

Captain Credit CrunchThis FDIC benefit is scheduled to end before January 1, 2013. The expected reaction is for small businesses to take their operating funds out of community banks and return to larger banks, where size is assumed to correlate to strength. Small banks, which have recently begun extending more credit to local businesses, will no longer have the funds to continue this practice.

There is a chance that the FDIC program will continue, but that requires dependency on politicians being interested in changing the direction it gave the FDIC and being willing to continue the expense, whether from government (public) sources or from fees received from FDIC member institutions.

At the same time the potential shift from community banks to large, national banks hangs over the head of those who are concerned about the possibility of another credit crunch, big banks have already reined in their lending. In the first quarter of 2012, credit card and bank lending has dropped.

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup cut their lending by a collective $24 billion in the first three months of the year. That was a change from last year when lending rose $34 billion at the nation’s four biggest banks in all of 2012.

Plan for the next credit crunch now

The individuals hurt the hardest during a credit crunch are people barely living paycheck to paycheck, relying on credit cards to meet their financial obligations, but by far the worst of the credit crunch is felt by small business owners who rely on bank credit, particularly during times of recession, to stay in business.

Families with the most exposure in a credit crunch can prepare by growing and nurturing an emergency fund. I’ve been promoting emergency funds during the best and worst economic times, and those who use the good times to shore up resources to survive the hard times make it through. It’s an economic policy as old as the Bible. Small business owners should take the same approach.

With a credit crunch, interest rates will continue to remain low, encouraging a money to flow as freely as possible. Those who qualify for borrowing with the stricter criteria in a credit crunch can take advantage of the opportunity to borrow money at low rates and invest in hard assets with a physical presence. Real estate and art come to mind.

Photo: mary_thompson
CNN, Fortune

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Last year, I opened a money market account with Aurora Bank, a division of Lehman Brothers. If it seemed like an odd thing to do, it probably was. Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy in 2008, yet in 2011, they were promoting their online retail bank and looking for new customers. Not wanting to associate the marketing push with their brand, the bank had the name Aurora Bank rather than Lehman Brothers Bank, as it had been known from 1999 until after the bankruptcy.

I knew at the time that Lehman Brothers had been directed to sell Aurora Bank by May 2012, and that target is approaching. If regulators approve the acquisition, New York Community Bank will be assuming all deposits (savings, money market, and checking accounts) from Aurora Bank. New York Community Bank is no stranger to acquiring “online” banks. AmTrust was a recent acquisition. AmTrust “failed” in 2009, alongside many banks that crumbled under the credit crunch and recession, and New York Community Bank became the receivor. In this case, the situation does not reflect any problem with Aurora, but a condition of Lehman Brothers’ bankrupcty.

As I pointed out in my review of Aurora Bank, with the pending sale, Aurora Bank offered higher than average rates and initiated a marketing push to build a larger customer base in advance of the banking division being sold to the highest or best bidder. The risk of acquisition is mostly meaningless to customers, particularly those who are generally blind to brands and are not concerned with being loyal to a bank with whom they’ve had a relationship for many years. The FDIC ensures that changes like these don’t affect customers, even when banks fail without being acquired by another bank.

New York Community Bank consists of several divisions, each serving a different community. Most of these communities are in the New York area, but with acquisitions, the service area has spread. With the divisions operating somewhat separately, maintaining their own branding, and keeping the word “community” in many of the division names, the bank is certainly looking to emphasize the small-town vibe of a community-focused organization despite the growing size of the company.

  • Queens County Community Bank is a division of NYCB that operates in Queens County, New York.
  • Roosevelt Savings Bank operates in Brooklyn, New York.
  • Roslyn Savings Bank operates on Long Island.
  • CFS Bank operates in Westchester County, Manhattan, and the Bronx.
  • Richmond County Savings Bank operates on Staten Island.
  • NYCB also operates several banks in New Jersey including the Garden State Community Bank.

New York Community Bank’s online features are not as strong as one might expect from a bank that competes for business among the best online savings accounts, but Aurora Bank customers should receive services similar to those they’ve had over the past few years, including high-yield money market accounts accessible online.

Even the bigger online banks are not immune to changes; Capital One has acquired the United States deposits of online juggernaut ING Direct. The retail banking industry has been in a state of upheaval since the recession, and while the rate of failing banks has slowed down, banks with power are seizing opportunities for acquisitions. With consolidation, there is always fear that the customer will lose, and there is some validity to that fear. Competition is good in the banking industry, motivating companies to offer products that meet customers’ needs while keeping fees low.

Here is the text of the letter I received as a customer of Aurora Bank:

Dear Bank Customer:

Please be advised that at 12 noon on July 6, 2012, the following Aurora Bank FSB (aurora) branches will close permanently…

Separately, we wish to inform you that New York Community Bank, in a transaction that is subject to regulatory approval, will be acquiring any deposit accounts you currently maintain at Aurora. In the event the required regulatory approvals have not been received prior to the branch closing date, your accounts will be transferred to, and will be serviced by, Aurora’s home office, currently located at 1000 West Street, Suite 200, Wilmington, Delaware 19801, until such time as the necessary approvals are received. New York Community Bank will contact you with additional information regarding the transfer of your account(s). No action by you will be necessary.

We thank you for being an Aurora customer. If you have any questions, please contact our customer service department at 888-522-9295.

The letter comes to me as a reminder that I have too many open bank accounts floating around, mostly as a result of writing reviews for Consumerism Commentary readers.

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From time to time, Consumerism Commentary readers contact me with questions. I am not an investment professional or a financial planner, and I don’t offer advice related to investing other than my general thoughts on the topic. The questions I receive range from basic investing details like government-regulated limits for investment account types to how to deal with a malfunctioning ATM. I can answer some questions publicly, as the answer may benefit others in similar situations.

I recently received a question from a Consumerism Commentary reader. He is having a problem with his pension managed by TIAA-CREF. This is a timely topic, as I’ve just recently written about this company’s new retail banking branch and the TIAA Direct High Yield Savings Account. In this case, the reader believes that his account has somehow been tampered with. He has made repeated attempts to work with the company, but the broker’s customer service department refuses to rectify the balance in the account.

Without having any further details, I can’t be confident about the merits of the issue. Investments lose value often, and have particularly done so in the last few years. While a pension should be invested in a manner that is generally safe from value decreases, it isn’t always. There is risk that the investments in a pension will lose value, at least in the short term. Balances may fluctuate, but if you have a guaranteed pension payout, that should not be affected unless the pension is underfunded.

Savings and checking accounts are protected from losing value by the FDIC, a government agency. Another government agency, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) protects pensions. This agency will take over pensions that go bankrupt in order to maintain promised payouts to pensioners.

Disputes about investment balances are handled elsewhere, however. If you believe a broker has not managed your account correctly and that you’ve lost money as a result of anything other than investment performance, then you can raise the issue with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and ask for arbitration. The process will take some time to resolve. On average, the process has been taking 14 months in the most recent data offered by FINRA.

Here’s how you can get started once you’ve exhausted all avenues for resolving the dispute directly with the broker. I should point out that you may want to avoid this process until you’ve done everything in your power to resolve the issue directly with the broker, including contacting the company’s executives.

  • Get a lawyer. An attorney familiar with investment banking will help you navigate this process. You can choose to handle the process yourself, but your opponent, the broker, will certainly have a lawyer. You don’t want to be at a bigger disadvantage than you already are for being one person battling a large corporation.
  • File a claim with FINRA. To prevent frivolous claims, FINRA requires anyone filing a claim to pay fees. The filing fee is based on the amount of damages you’re claiming. FINRA offers a fee calculator to illustrate what you might pay; I ran the calculator for a hypothetical claim requesting $200,000 in damages, and the resulting fee was $1,425.
  • Select an arbitrator and schedule a conference. FINRA will provide a list of arbitrators, and you and the broker must agree on the company that will be helping resolve the issue.
  • Present your evidence. You and the broker will go through a discovery process to exchange evidence that you were or weren’t damaged through the broker’s action or inaction. This will involve exchanging documents in support of your claim and presenting your argument in person with the arbitrator.
  • Wait for the arbitrator’s decision. Once the arbitration company considers the evidence, it will issue a decision and award any damages if necessary.

In 2012 through February, 79 percent of all complaints were settled any time after the initiation of the claim, so there’s a good chance that with the help of the arbitrator, you and the broker could come to a mutual agreement without going through the full arbitration process. In the same time frame, for claims that were not settled or otherwise closed before the arbitrator’s decision, the claimant was awarded damages in only 50 percent of the cases.

By investing with a broker associated with FINRA, you’ve agreed to abide by this arbitration procedure to resolve disputes when you’re unable to achieve your desired results by dealing with the broker directly. You can get started by filing a FINRA claim at the organization’s website or viewing the information FINRA has made available to the public.

Have you ever filed a FINRA claim for damages against a broker? I expect most Consumerism Commentary readers have not, but if anyone has experience with this type of process and can share some of the details, I’m sure readers would be interested in hearing about the process.

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Preservation of capital is an important aspect of any financial plan, but in today’s economy, this is impossible without taking on some risk. At one time, you could confidently place any money you might need within one year in a high-yield savings account and be relatively confident that your money could buy at least as much a year in the future than it could buy the day you deposited your funds. Interest rates were relatively coordinated with the rate of inflation.

That’s not the case today. The Department of Labor released the latest inflation data. It should be no surprise to most consumers that the changes in the price of gas led to an increase in the energy index of 3.2 percent over the last twelve months (ending February). The inflation rate for all items is 2.9 percent. While the government-reported inflation rate doesn’t translate to the actual increase in expenses any one individual experiences year over year, it’s the best benchmark we currently have for a generalized view of the increase in prices.

And it’s the measure we use to determine how much purchasing power savers lose. If your savings account isn’t earning at least 2.9 percent after tax, you’re losing money in real terms by placing it in a bank. With banks offering less than 1 percent interest before taxes on their best high-yield savings accounts, purchasing power losses accelerate. Placing your cash under a mattress to earn zero interest is a worse idea, so are there any other options providing a safe way to maintain purchasing power?

Money BagsNot really. Using a savings account is great for funds you might need in an emergency, because you can access the money quickly without worrying about selling an asset. Savers have to understand that having an emergency fund is a compromise; in return for the safety of an FDIC-insured account, savers waive the right to preserve real value, at least in today’s economy.

Any other options for preserving capital introduce risk.

  • Investing in the stock market. Despite some recent frenzy about the stock market, with prices of the major indexes reaching near-term highs and day-over-day increases exceeding the best-performing day of the year thus far, there have also been daily price decreases reflecting the worst performance of the year. The stock market is incredibly volatile. For the long-term, it’s a good place to be, but there’s no guarantee that your capital will be preserved for when you need it.
  • Buying real estate. For years, families saw the house they live in as a way to store their wealth. The belief was unfortunately based on the myth that real estate values never decrease. Well, any asset can find itself in a bubble, whether they be tulips, stocks, or houses, and people who relied on real estate’s ever-increasing value to make a living have had a difficult time in recent years. It’s been terrible news for real estate flippers, but the effects hit single-house homeowners just as hard.

    Although timing the market is always dangerous, with low prices and low interest rates, if you can qualify and if the time is right for your family, now could be the right time to buy a house, particularly if you’re looking to live there for a long time.

  • Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). You can buy this investment product directly from the U.S. Treasury. Twice a year, you receive interest as well as an adjustment to your principal balance based on the inflation rate. This is basically a bond that will only lose value in the event of deflation. If you must sell TIPS after the value has dipped below your initial investment, you will still receive your full initial investment back.

    There’s no risk in losing money, and this is the closest you might be able to get to true preservation of capital during inflation. Keep in mind, however, that the government’s reported inflation value doesn’t necessarily reflect any one household’s experienced rate of inflation. The government’s rate used for calculating TIPS adjustments, the CPI-U, uses the prices of a combination of goods that weights items in a way that might not be relevant to most consumers.

  • Buying gold. Investing in gold is traditionally a good way to hedge against inflation, but the price of gold fluctuates. Like all commodities, the value of gold at any particular time is subject to the whims of commodities traders. An investment in gold is not as stable as its reputation. The price fluctuation may be due to fluctuations in the value of the dollar or of any other fiat currency, but the cause is irrelevant because the U.S. dollar is the world’s standard for currency, and if that ever changes, it would be another currency or combination of currencies that becomes the standard, not a commodity like gold. The days of the gold standard are over.

    Furthermore, most people who invest in gold use ETFs or mutual funds due to convenience. It would be inefficient and expensive to store and secure a significant amount of physical gold bars. Once you are dealing with electronic trades rather than a physical manifestation of metal, you’re subjecting yourself even more to the whim of the financial industry.

With low interest rates and increasing inflation, this may be a good time, from a financial perspective, to borrow money. You can do more with someone else’s money, repaying the loan with money valued less in the future. Borrowing money is of course not a good idea for people who could find themselves in trouble with debt, as interest costs could spiral out of control, but if you look at the numbers, borrowers are getting a much better deal, relatively speaking, than savers.

In today’s economy, if you are preserving your money, how are you doing so?

Photo: Lord Jim

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Three Banks and One Insurer Fail Fed’s Stress Test

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Citi Checking Account Piggy Bank

After the recession, the Federal Reserve developed a stress test for banks and financial firms too big too fail. The stress test looks at the financial condition of these corporations and simulates a new recession. Under the simulation, based on a worst-case scenario, not an actual economic forecast, banks pass the test if the companies ... Continue reading this article…

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Earn 6% APY With the Mango MasterCard Prepaid Card

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The idea of prepaid card being used as financial tools can be a cringe-worthy concept, particularly to savvy financial experts. For most Americans, prepaid cards aren’t really part of the tool set. The benefits of a credit card are much stronger than prepaid cards, and with most people qualifying for credit cards, even through the ... Continue reading this article…

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Current and Historical Checking and Savings Account Rates

by Flexo

Since many banks are constantly updating their interest rates offered on savings, money market and checking accounts, this chart should come in handy. On the 1st and 15th of every month, this page is updated to show the most accurate rate information available. This list is organized in two sections. The first section includes FDIC-insured ... Continue reading this article…

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Aurora Bank Review

by Flexo

In my neverending quest to find more options for banking in today’s environment of low-yield high-yield savings and money market accounts, I’ve come across Aurora Bank. I don’t move money around from one account to another to chase high rates, but until I get around to simplifying my banking options, I tend to open accounts ... Continue reading this article…

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