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After the recession, the Federal Reserve developed a stress test for banks and financial firms too big too fail. The stress test looks at the financial condition of these corporations and simulates a new recession. Under the simulation, based on a worst-case scenario, not an actual economic forecast, banks pass the test if the companies have sufficient capital to continue lending; if not, they fail.

Here’s the doomsday recession scenario or assumptions applied to the banks’ financial condition:

  • An unemployment rate of 13 percent.
  • A 50 percent drop in the stock market.
  • A 21 percent drop in the real estate market.

Citi Checking Account Piggy BankThis scenario, which isn’t a prediction for the future, is non far-fetched. The recession in 2008 produced similar or worse results in the stock market and housing prices.

Overall, the banks fared better with this year’s test than with last year’s same analysis. The improvement is due to increased capital at the corporations. The companies lowered dividends to keep more money on hand for emergencies.

While fifteen of the nineteen banks were found to have sufficient capital to withstand the recession without assistance, four bank holding companies or financial institutions in the test failed to meet the capital requirements: Ally Financial, Citigroup, SunTrust, and MetLife.

Officials from the banks quickly responded to the Federal Reserve’s results.

Citigroup said it remains among the best capitalized large banks in the world. However, it said it would not be able to raise its dividend as it hoped, and would submit a revised capital plan to the Fed. Ally said it supported the idea of stress tests, but it disagreed with a number of the assumptions the Fed made, including overstating the bank’s potential mortgage losses. SunTrust could not be reached for comment. Metlife said it was unfair to apply the same tests to insurers as it did to banks.

These companies’ failures isn’t too concerning for customers. Customers shouldn’t be worried that their savings accounts aren’t safe or their insurance policies are in danger. No one has ever lost money in an FDIC-insured bank account. If these corporations don’t improve their financial situation by raising more capital or paying less to shareholders, a recession might result in more government intervention in the companies’ continued operation. The lack of sufficient capital in these financial institutions might lead to another bail-out scenario.

While not concerning from a personal perspective, there is reason to be somewhat concerned with the Federal Reserve’s findings. Financial institutions haven’t adequately planned for systemic risk. When banks fail or need a government bail-out, capital infusion, or partial nationalization, all taxpayers are affected. Shareholders need to be concerned. Will the recent bail-outs still fresh in people’s minds, the public and policymakers have likely lost its appetite for using taxpayer money for assisting banks that are “too big to fail,” and might rather see a firm like Citi go bankrupt rather than submit to a government takeover.

Federal Reserve
Fortune

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While the forecast is calling for rain all week where I live, the free gifts are raining down at Consumerism Commentary. Giveaway May continues right now with the twelfth freebie of the month. Today, with the help of Glen from Free From Broke, I will be giving away ING Direct and ShareBuilder’s “Gift of Stock.” This is a package designed to start savers on the path towards investing.

Free From Broke, the sponsor of today’s giveaway, is a personal finance blog where Glen shares information and articles on personal finances subjects, reviews of products, and personal stories.

The Gift of Stock from ING Direct and ShareBuilder includes:

  • A $50 ShareBuilder gift card
  • 5 Automatic Investment Plan trade credits
  • The Motley Fool video series

In addition the the Gift of Stock, today’s winner will also receive a $50 Amazon Gift Card.

Here is how to qualify for entering today’s giveaway:

  1. Sign up for the Consumerism Commentary email newsletter. The first message you receive after confirming your subscription will welcome you to membership, and it will contain a secret word. If you are already a subscriber, don’t sign up again; your latest newsletter contains the secret word.

    Your name
    Email address
  2. Sign up for the Free From Broke email newsletter. Again, the first message after confirming will welcome you and contact a different secret word. If you are already a subscriber, your latest newsletter contains the secret word.
  3. Send an email to may17@consumerismcommentary.com containing both secret words to confirm you qualify for the giveaway.
  4. Optional: Send a message on Twitter to @bryanjbusch, host/producer of the Consumerism Commentary Podcast, to wish him a happy birthday. Note: This will not affect your chances to win, but it could make Bryan happy.

As always, in order to win, you must complete all steps prior to 11:59 PM Eastern Time the night of May 17, 2011, continue to be a subscriber of both newsletters, and meet the requirements set forth in the Giveaway May introduction. The winner will be contacted within the next few weeks.

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I’m still a fan of the mobility and flexibility offered by renting a place to live rather than buying. I don’t know where I’ll be living in the next few years, and I wouldn’t want to deal with the expense and hassle of selling a house so soon after purchasing. Perhaps my evaluation of my situation is changing, however.

I like the area where I live. As of today’s thinking, I probably won’t move way from the greater Princeton area unless my girlfriend and I decide to live closer to her family in Queens or Long Island. The borough of Princeton is an expensive place to live, as is the surrounding township, so if I were to buy a house in this area it would be out of town.

Though the decision to buy is influenced by my needs and concerns, it’s always helpful to look at the real estate market in the area. For most non-investment real estate transactions, a homeowner would sell one house and buy another, sitting on both sides of transactions. All things being equal, he or she would not see an advantage in a sellers’ boom market because he or she would also be buying, and the same is true in a buyers’ market as he or she would also be selling. The only time one can really take advantage of a buyers’ market is when they are buying a house without selling one, as one would do when buying a first house.

That’s where I stand right now. Home prices are historically low, even if Princeton has seen a 5% increase in median sale prices over the last year. Although the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is up 3.6% this month, many analysts still forecast low prices for a while.

One option I am currently considering is buying a multifamily house, living in one unit and renting out another. With renting being a popular option right now, and with a location in close proximity to an Ivy League campus, this could be an interesting way to build equity and create new cash flow.

If I decide to move away from the area, I could rent both units in the multifamily house. Managing the house from afar could be difficult, but if there is enough cash flow, I could hire a management company.

The plan relies on finding the right kind of house for the right price. If I do end up leaving my day job, it will be harder to qualify for a mortgage and if I do, I’ll most likely have to pay higher interest rates. This plan may need to be enacted, if at all, before I quit the rat race to work on my projects full-time.

Any thoughts are welcome. Do you think this is a good plan? What would you do?

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Aside from some procedural maneuvering in the Senate, the health insurance reform bill that Congress has been working on for the last year, now falling under the Reconciliation Act of 2010 (H.R. 4872) and the Senate health bill, will soon be signed into law. How is the new law going to affect your personal finances? Since there are so many different health and insurance situations in America, it’d be impossible to cover them all in one article.

Here’s a roundup of the more significant and wide-reaching parts, in a rough order of how likely each would impact you.

For everybody

If you itemize medical expenses on your taxes, the threshold will go up from 7.5% to 10% of your income (expenses will have to total above 10% before you can deduct them), though the threshold remains at 7.5% for the elderly through 2016.

Starting in 2014, individuals and small businesses will be able to shop around for state-based group health plans in addition to private plans. This is optional and should provide an ability to find lower premiums due to a large customer base and the natural effects of increased competition in the market. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects the number of people getting insurance through the new marketplace to start around 8 million in 2014 and to grow to 24 million in 2019.

Health insurance premiums

Most working Americans get health insurance coverage through their employer or their spouse’s employer. Premiums will largely stay the same according to FactCheck.org, but you’ll get more “bang for your buck.” Insurance companies will be required to spend 85% of your premium on medical care in small markets and 80% in large markets, rather than spend it on other things like marketing, bonuses, lobbying, and other administrative expenses.

Kids

Dependent children will be allowed to stay covered under their parents’ insurance until age 26. According to Reuters, “Many health plans currently drop dependents from coverage when they turn 19 or finish college.” This increased coverage is optional, and parents who decide to take advantage of this can always ask their adult kids to pay for their own co-pays and deductibles.

This will go into effect six months after the president signs the bill into law.

Seniors

There is currently a “doughnut hole” in Medicare Part D, the program that many Seniors use to purchase medication. If you’re spending between $2,700 and $6,154 a year on drugs, you have to pay for it all yourself. The new law gradually closes this gap over time, starting with a $250 rebate, 50% discount on brand names starting in 2011, and it will be eliminated by 2020.

About 22% of Medicare enrollees use Medicare Advantage. Some add-on benefits of popular Medicare Advantage plans will be dropped, and money flowing from the government toward these plans will decrease. Medicare Advantage plan providers will have to spend at least 85% of revenue on medical costs or activities that improve quality of care, rather than profit and overhead.

Starting in 2011, Medicare beneficiaries will be able to get a free annual wellness visit and personalized prevention plan service. New health plans will be required to cover preventive services with little or no cost to patients.

Poor people

From Reuters:

Medicaid, the government healthcare program for the poor, would be available to everyone with incomes up to 133 percent of the poverty level, which stood at $10,830 for an individual and $22,050, for a family of four.

Federal subsidies for purchasing insurance will be available for those beyond the Medicaid limit, Americans with incomes between 133% and 400% of the poverty line.

If you get sick

This is why most people get health insurance in the first place. It’s the same reason we get car insurance. There might be a terrible accident. Here’s how the new law will affect your finances if you get seriously ill:

  • You won’t be dropped from your health plan. In about six months, that will be illegal.
  • If you try to purchase health insurance with an existing illness, you will be able to. Insurance companies won’t turn you away. This is true for children six months after it’s signed into law, and by 2014 for adults.
  • There will be no limit to how much coverage you can receive in your lifetime.
  • Similarly, annual limits on benefits will be restricted within about six months, and will be illegal by 2014.

The “Cadillac Tax”

If you have a “high-cost” plan, currently defined as one costing more than $10,200 for an individual or $27,500 for a family per year, there will be a new 40% tax starting in 2018. According to FactCheck.org, this new tax “falls on insurers, but would be passed along to policyholders one way or another.”

However, according to Reuters, “A higher threshold is allowed for plans covering mostly women, older workers and retirees as well as those in high-risk professions.” The dollar thresholds are indexed to inflation and the dollar thresholds are automatically increased in 2018 if the CBO is wrong in its forecast of the premium inflation rate between now and 2018.

As a result of this tax, the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation believe people will start choosing less expensive plans, and because of higher cost benefits, employers will be able to raise salaries. Time will tell.

Wealthy people

From Reuters:

The Medicare payroll tax is raised to 2.35 percent from 1.45 percent for individuals earning more than $200,000 and married couples with incomes over $250,000. The tax is imposed on some investment income for that income group.

This refers to adjusted gross income (taxable income), not total annual income. This will go into effect in 2013. In 2008, about 2% of American households had adjusted gross incomes greater than $250,000.

Update:“Investor Junkie” in the comments pointed out something I missed in this section. The Medicare tax which comes out of our paychecks is being modified to include net investment income (interest, dividends, royalties, rents, gross income from a trade or business involving passive activities, and net gain from disposition of property). As above, this does not apply if modified adjusted gross income is less than $250,000 in the case of a joint return, or $200,000 in the case of a single return.

Employers

Starting this year, there will be a new tax credit for some small businesses to help provide coverage for workers, but firms with more than 50 workers who do not offer medical coverage could face fines of $2,000 per full-time employee. The first 30 are exempted from the fine, so if the non-compliant business has 51 employees, the fine applies to 21 of them.

In addition, according to Reuters, “A temporary reinsurance program is created to help companies maintain health coverage for early retirees between the ages of 55 and 64. This also expires in 2014.”

People who can afford insurance but choose not to buy

If you’re not covered under your parents’ plan, and if your income is high enough to afford insurance, and if you choose not to sign up for it anyway, you will pay an annual penalty. The penalty will be either a flat dollar amount (for example, $325 in 2015 and $695 in 2016), or as a percentage of your income (for example, 1.0% in 2014, 2.0% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016).

If you own a tanning salon

From Reuters, “A 10 percent tax on indoor tanning services that use ultraviolet lamps goes into effect on July 1.”

Further reading

This article focuses almost solely on the direct or indirect effects of the new law on your personal or family finances. There are many more aspects to the law, however, which I encourage you to familiarize yourself with, including the quality of care, how program effectiveness is measured, innovation, taxes on specific medical devices, how national programs are paid for, etc. The full list of my sources are below:

Factbox: Details of final healthcare bill, Donna Smith, Reuters, 19 March 2010
Factbox: Healthcare bill would provide immediate benefits, Donna Smith, Reuters, 19 March 2010
Factbox: Winners and losers in House healthcare bill, Susan Heavy, Reuters, 19 March 2010
A Final Weekend of Whoppers, Lori Robertson, FactCheck.org, 19 March 2010
H.R. 4872, Reconciliation Act of 2010, Congressional Budget Office, 18 March 2010

There’s also a handy calculator provided by the Kaiser Family Foundation where you can see specifically how you’ll be affected once the new law is signed. Make sure you choose “Reconciliation Proposal” in the dropdown menu near the top.

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Travel On a Budget

by Kelly Whalen

This article is presented by Kelly Whalen, Consumerism Commentary staff writer. Traveling can be expensive, but worthwhile. At some point everyone needs to take a break from their regular routine. Whether you stay at home, take a car trip to Grandma’s house, or fly across the country, there are ways to travel without spending all ... Continue reading this article…

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Ben Stein Offers Four Lessons From the Recession

by Flexo

The United States must be approaching the end of the recession when economists begin offering their retrospectives. Even if the data are pointing to an end to the recession, in technical terms, the economy is a long way from recovery. Just look around at the people out of work. Even those who have maintained their ... Continue reading this article…

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Which are Reliable Indicators of a Strong Economy?

by Smithee

One of the fun things about living in an Information Age is that we not only have near-instant access to financial data, but also a multitude of data sources to look at. It seems there’s a new report every day with updated economic news and forecasts. We’d like your input about the economic indicators that ... Continue reading this article…

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Quicken Online Adds New Cash Tracking Feature

by Flexo

This week, Quicken Online (reviewed here), a free service, has added a few new features to help you more accurately and efficiently track your spending and manage your finances. As credit card offer increasingly unfavorable terms and abandon rewards, and as fewer people qualify for credit cards, more are turning to spending using cold hard ... Continue reading this article…

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