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Government-Reported Inflation

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Over the twelve months ending with March 2012, the increase in the consumer price index (CPI-U) as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, often referred to as the inflation rate, is 2.7 percent (2.3 percent if you exclude food and energy). While these numbers are below the historically-cited norm for inflation, 3 percent, the numbers are still troubling for some people.

Government-reported increases in the consumer price index do not tie to any individual’s experienced increase in the cost of living. No person can assume that if wealth grows by the rate of inflation that life is just as affordable as it was a year ago. For example, if my income was $100,000 in 2011 and $102,700 in 2012, although my salary would be keeping pace with inflation, it’s likely that I still would find that this year’s income would not afford me as much as last year’s income was able to afford me.

Helium balloon inflationWith $100,000 in a high-yield savings account, the $750 I would have earned in before-tax interest not only loses to government-reported inflation, it would be pathetic compared to any rate of increase of expenses I experienced personally.

Part of the problem is that the CPI-U is calculated by measuring the change of price of a variety of consumer goods, but each type of good is weighted according to its importance. The level of importance is taken as an average importance across all citizens based in or near cities in the United States. Thus, the weighting may not be appropriate for any one individual. For example, as of the last CPI-U calculation, gasoline for vehicle fuel was weighted 5.7 percent. 5.7 percent of the year-over-year increase in consumer prices can be attributed to the increase in gas prices.

Any one family’s exposure to the cost of gasoline could easily be greater than 5.7 percent. A household with two incomes might involve a husband and wife who both commute an hour or more to, and an hour or more from, their places of work. For a family like this, the effect of an increase in gas prices could be much more devastating to their finances than the CPI-U would indicate. The increase in this category year-over-year is 9.0 percent. So if for any family, gasoline accounts for more than 5.7 percent of all expenses, the real cost of living would have increased more than the reported inflation rate.

We are often concerned with finding investments that provide a return higher than inflation. Financial planners consider inflation one of many benchmarks. If you want to maintain purchasing power with your funds, you’d look for a low-risk investment that meets or stays on par with the rate of inflation. The government even offers inflation-protected securities, whose yields are designed to artificially keep pace with the rate of inflation, thus providing investors a method of investing with a guarantee of not losing “purchasing power.”

The comparison between investment returns as experienced by one individual and a calculation of an average increase of prices is invalid. Financial experts continue to use the average inflation rate as a benchmark for individuals because it’s easy and can seem to apply to an entire population at once — even if it really applies to no one.

The criticism of the CPI-U as a personal rate of inflation doesn’t end with the idea that an average measurement doesn’t apply to any one individual. The method of calculating inflation has changed over time, and modern calculations are criticized for masking the truth. If the rate of inflation were to be calculated the same way it had been four decades ago, the rate would be significantly higher. The public is sensitive to bad economic news, and it’s safer for the government officials who are in power to continue to report subdued numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics should be free from political influence, but that’s an impossible ideal, especially over the course of a generation or two.

As a result of the realities behind criticism of the inflation rate, real inflation in the cost of living is destroying your net worth. Inflation keeps investors chasing returns that, while being better than earning nothing or losing money, are not high enough to continue a standard of living. Fifteen years ago, the most popular television sets might have cost an average of about $500. This was before LCD technology and high-definition became widespread. Today, the average cost of the most popular televisions might be $1,000. Today’s LED-backlit LCD HDTVs, while $1,000 today, would have cost more than $10,000 a few years ago when the technology was new. So in one sense, advancements in technology lower consumer costs, but offsetting that reduction is the consumer demand for better equipment, and that demand outpaces the decline in prices. Nobody’s buying the first generation iPad today.

Photo: Kai Hendry
Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Last year, I opened a money market account with Aurora Bank, a division of Lehman Brothers. If it seemed like an odd thing to do, it probably was. Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy in 2008, yet in 2011, they were promoting their online retail bank and looking for new customers. Not wanting to associate the marketing push with their brand, the bank had the name Aurora Bank rather than Lehman Brothers Bank, as it had been known from 1999 until after the bankruptcy.

I knew at the time that Lehman Brothers had been directed to sell Aurora Bank by May 2012, and that target is approaching. If regulators approve the acquisition, New York Community Bank will be assuming all deposits (savings, money market, and checking accounts) from Aurora Bank. New York Community Bank is no stranger to acquiring “online” banks. AmTrust was a recent acquisition. AmTrust “failed” in 2009, alongside many banks that crumbled under the credit crunch and recession, and New York Community Bank became the receivor. In this case, the situation does not reflect any problem with Aurora, but a condition of Lehman Brothers’ bankrupcty.

As I pointed out in my review of Aurora Bank, with the pending sale, Aurora Bank offered higher than average rates and initiated a marketing push to build a larger customer base in advance of the banking division being sold to the highest or best bidder. The risk of acquisition is mostly meaningless to customers, particularly those who are generally blind to brands and are not concerned with being loyal to a bank with whom they’ve had a relationship for many years. The FDIC ensures that changes like these don’t affect customers, even when banks fail without being acquired by another bank.

New York Community Bank consists of several divisions, each serving a different community. Most of these communities are in the New York area, but with acquisitions, the service area has spread. With the divisions operating somewhat separately, maintaining their own branding, and keeping the word “community” in many of the division names, the bank is certainly looking to emphasize the small-town vibe of a community-focused organization despite the growing size of the company.

  • Queens County Community Bank is a division of NYCB that operates in Queens County, New York.
  • Roosevelt Savings Bank operates in Brooklyn, New York.
  • Roslyn Savings Bank operates on Long Island.
  • CFS Bank operates in Westchester County, Manhattan, and the Bronx.
  • Richmond County Savings Bank operates on Staten Island.
  • NYCB also operates several banks in New Jersey including the Garden State Community Bank.

New York Community Bank’s online features are not as strong as one might expect from a bank that competes for business among the best online savings accounts, but Aurora Bank customers should receive services similar to those they’ve had over the past few years, including high-yield money market accounts accessible online.

Even the bigger online banks are not immune to changes; Capital One has acquired the United States deposits of online juggernaut ING Direct. The retail banking industry has been in a state of upheaval since the recession, and while the rate of failing banks has slowed down, banks with power are seizing opportunities for acquisitions. With consolidation, there is always fear that the customer will lose, and there is some validity to that fear. Competition is good in the banking industry, motivating companies to offer products that meet customers’ needs while keeping fees low.

Here is the text of the letter I received as a customer of Aurora Bank:

Dear Bank Customer:

Please be advised that at 12 noon on July 6, 2012, the following Aurora Bank FSB (aurora) branches will close permanently…

Separately, we wish to inform you that New York Community Bank, in a transaction that is subject to regulatory approval, will be acquiring any deposit accounts you currently maintain at Aurora. In the event the required regulatory approvals have not been received prior to the branch closing date, your accounts will be transferred to, and will be serviced by, Aurora’s home office, currently located at 1000 West Street, Suite 200, Wilmington, Delaware 19801, until such time as the necessary approvals are received. New York Community Bank will contact you with additional information regarding the transfer of your account(s). No action by you will be necessary.

We thank you for being an Aurora customer. If you have any questions, please contact our customer service department at 888-522-9295.

The letter comes to me as a reminder that I have too many open bank accounts floating around, mostly as a result of writing reviews for Consumerism Commentary readers.

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From time to time, Consumerism Commentary readers contact me with questions. I am not an investment professional or a financial planner, and I don’t offer advice related to investing other than my general thoughts on the topic. The questions I receive range from basic investing details like government-regulated limits for investment account types to how to deal with a malfunctioning ATM. I can answer some questions publicly, as the answer may benefit others in similar situations.

I recently received a question from a Consumerism Commentary reader. He is having a problem with his pension managed by TIAA-CREF. This is a timely topic, as I’ve just recently written about this company’s new retail banking branch and the TIAA Direct High Yield Savings Account. In this case, the reader believes that his account has somehow been tampered with. He has made repeated attempts to work with the company, but the broker’s customer service department refuses to rectify the balance in the account.

Without having any further details, I can’t be confident about the merits of the issue. Investments lose value often, and have particularly done so in the last few years. While a pension should be invested in a manner that is generally safe from value decreases, it isn’t always. There is risk that the investments in a pension will lose value, at least in the short term. Balances may fluctuate, but if you have a guaranteed pension payout, that should not be affected unless the pension is underfunded.

Savings and checking accounts are protected from losing value by the FDIC, a government agency. Another government agency, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) protects pensions. This agency will take over pensions that go bankrupt in order to maintain promised payouts to pensioners.

Disputes about investment balances are handled elsewhere, however. If you believe a broker has not managed your account correctly and that you’ve lost money as a result of anything other than investment performance, then you can raise the issue with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and ask for arbitration. The process will take some time to resolve. On average, the process has been taking 14 months in the most recent data offered by FINRA.

Here’s how you can get started once you’ve exhausted all avenues for resolving the dispute directly with the broker. I should point out that you may want to avoid this process until you’ve done everything in your power to resolve the issue directly with the broker, including contacting the company’s executives.

  • Get a lawyer. An attorney familiar with investment banking will help you navigate this process. You can choose to handle the process yourself, but your opponent, the broker, will certainly have a lawyer. You don’t want to be at a bigger disadvantage than you already are for being one person battling a large corporation.
  • File a claim with FINRA. To prevent frivolous claims, FINRA requires anyone filing a claim to pay fees. The filing fee is based on the amount of damages you’re claiming. FINRA offers a fee calculator to illustrate what you might pay; I ran the calculator for a hypothetical claim requesting $200,000 in damages, and the resulting fee was $1,425.
  • Select an arbitrator and schedule a conference. FINRA will provide a list of arbitrators, and you and the broker must agree on the company that will be helping resolve the issue.
  • Present your evidence. You and the broker will go through a discovery process to exchange evidence that you were or weren’t damaged through the broker’s action or inaction. This will involve exchanging documents in support of your claim and presenting your argument in person with the arbitrator.
  • Wait for the arbitrator’s decision. Once the arbitration company considers the evidence, it will issue a decision and award any damages if necessary.

In 2012 through February, 79 percent of all complaints were settled any time after the initiation of the claim, so there’s a good chance that with the help of the arbitrator, you and the broker could come to a mutual agreement without going through the full arbitration process. In the same time frame, for claims that were not settled or otherwise closed before the arbitrator’s decision, the claimant was awarded damages in only 50 percent of the cases.

By investing with a broker associated with FINRA, you’ve agreed to abide by this arbitration procedure to resolve disputes when you’re unable to achieve your desired results by dealing with the broker directly. You can get started by filing a FINRA claim at the organization’s website or viewing the information FINRA has made available to the public.

Have you ever filed a FINRA claim for damages against a broker? I expect most Consumerism Commentary readers have not, but if anyone has experience with this type of process and can share some of the details, I’m sure readers would be interested in hearing about the process.

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Just when you thought the era of new online banks splashing into the market was over, TIAA-CREF is on the hunt for customers’ deposits. TIAA-CREF Trust Company, FSB was established in 1998, and the bank just began offering deposit accounts in the last month. The products, under the name TIAA Direct, are intended to compete with the best online savings accounts and checking accounts, and as of now, the interest rates are attractive.

I have some of my retirement funds invested with TIAA-CREF’s mutual fund division, and after a frustrating effort with the company to fund my SEP IRA several years ago, I decided to leave the company in favor of Vanguard for my investments.

I initially chose to invest with TIAA-CREF due to their low minimum investment amount and their association, at least in my mind, with the education industry and non-profit organizations. Several companies within the TIAA-CREF family are non-profit organizations, but the government revoked its 501(c)(3) status in 1998. As a result, the company does not enjoy the same tax benefits as other non-profit organizations.

My experience with the investment arm of TIAA-CREF and the lack of a need to open yet another savings account may prevent me from opening a new account with TIAA Direct. Customers who are looking for the best interest rates would do well to investigate the bank further, though. When a new account arrives on the scene, it will attempt to attract new depositors, and that often includes offering a great interest rate for savings accounts.

I’ve found that for the most part over the last decade, banks who offer overly attractive terms and initiate a significant marketing endeavor after their arrival soon lower interest rates. Once the company has received its target amount of deposits, there is less motivation to attract new customers. Some banks have even closed their doors to new customers once their target was reached.

The following details are as of March 20, 2012, and are subject to change at any time.

TIAA Direct is attracting new customers to its basic High Yield Savings account with a 1.25% APY, one of the best interest rates currently available in the United States. This rate is about twice as much as the interest offered by some of TIAA Direct’s most relevant competitors.

There is a $25 minimum initial deposit and there are no fees. The savings account and the companion Money Market account are limited to six non-ATM transactions each month, as mandated by banking regulations. The Money Market account offers the same interest rate and minimum deposit as the High Yield Savings account but also offers check-writing privileges. Both accounts include an ATM card.

The bank is also offering an interest checking account with interest rates ranging from 0.05% to 0.15% APY. Customers will receive free checks, a debit card, and the ability to deposit checks using an iPhone application. Again, there is a initial deposit requirement of at least $25.

Once these accounts are open and funded with at least $25, there is no ongoing minimum balance requirement.

If you’re willing to lock up your savings for a period of time, TIAA Direct is also offering certificates of deposit with maturities of six months, one year, and two years. The interest rates for these accounts are lower than the High Yield Savings account and the Money Market account. You’re better off keeping your money in a savings account earning more interest and keeping your savings liquid until the CD rates exceed the rates earned in the savings account.

There are some finer points to consider; if you expect the savings account interest rate to dip below the best CD interest rate within the next two years, and you expect the CD rate to dip as well, you might be better off locking in the two-year CD rate today. It’s impossible to predict the future though, and you can make these decisions based only on what you know. There’s a good chance that the high interest rate on the savings and money market accounts won’t last, as has been the case for banks looking to make some noise and attract depositors right away.

There’s an indication of a lack of transparency, a troubling sign. There is a fee to withdraw funds from your CD before it reaches maturity, but you can only discover the details of this fee in the disclosure document customers receive only after funding the CD. You have to lock up your money before you’re told how much it’ll cost you to withdraw your cash in an emergency. Other banks typical penalize customers for withdrawing money from a CD by charging a fee based on the interest accrued in the account.

The real tests of a savings account, particularly in an environment where interest rates are low, are whether your money will be accessible when you need it and how well you’re able to work with customer service. TIAA Direct is new on the block, but if it inherits its customer service from its parent company, based on the feedback from hundreds of customers visiting Consumerism Commentary, potential customers may want to steer clear of this bank’s new deposit products.

Note: Richard Barrington from Money-Rates.com has asked for an interview with a spokesperson for TIAA Direct, but the company is saying they are not yet ready to launch these new products. You can, however, open a new account using the TIAA Direct website, and it is open to the public.

Photo: frankh

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