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Will You Buy the iPad 3?

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All signs are pointing to Apple releasing the latest iteration of its popular tablet this coming week. I gave in last year and purchased the original iPad, and I made this decision just days before the iPad 2 was announced. Now, tech geeks are expecting the iPad 3 to hit to streets this week. The iPad was my first Apple-branded product. I’ve never been a fan of Apple’s computers, with my objections stemming from everything from the keyboard layout to the graphical user interface. Nevertheless, I’ve used the iPad almost daily.

I won’t upgrade yet I’m satisfied with my original iPad, so I see now reason to spend money on the latest device.

iPadAre you planning to buy an iPad 3?

Here are a few articles I’ve discovered recently that I’d like to share.

Neal from Wealth Pilgrim has reviewed the social lending website, Prosper. Peer-to-peer and social lending is an intriguing idea. I think tools like Prosper, helping borrowers and lenders work with each other without layers of third parties like banks, are needed. It’s slightly more efficient, but not free from regulation. Without a trusted party between borrowers and lenders, large-scale borrowing and lending would be risky. At the same time, most financial institutions have too much overhead.

Social lending isn’t perfect. I couldn’t loan money to a friend at a decent rate through either Prosper or Lending Club because the state in which he lives has anti-usury laws that prevented a loan at the interest rate he qualified for. I couldn’t easily and directly invest in a basket of loans through a service because the state in which I live wasn’t ready to allow this type of investment opportunity.

Jim from Bargaineering explains how to print USPS postage at home for free. I didn’t take this approach a few years ago when I was selling old text books online through Amazon.com; media mail rates was not available for online printing. Now that media mail rates are available, it is easy to save money printing postage online for those who ship books, CDs, and video often.

The latest Carnival of Personal Finance was hosted earlier this week on Well-Heeled Blog. The Carnival included a number of excellent personal finance articles, as well as my article about modifying your behavior to improve your finances. The Carnival followed the Little Price’s journey to financial enlightenment. It’s always fun to read a Carnival that has an entertaining theme.

Photo: Veronica Belmont

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This is a guest article by Jacob, creator of the personal finance blog, My Personal Finance Journey. In the article, Jacob analyzes the Permanent Portfolio, a theory presented by Harry Browne, to determine whether investing along the theory’s guidelines can help investors beat the stock market.

Investors in general always seem to be on the lookout for a sure-fire strategy that they can use to outperform the market. Unfortunately, the reality is that these strategies are difficult-to-impossible to find. For this reason, I personally invest in a portfolio of passively managed low-cost index mutual funds from various asset classes and rebalance back to my asset allocation targets periodically.

Since my investing strategy does not take up too much time to maintain each month (in fact, individual stock investors might even call it “boring”), I am constantly interested in learning about new investing techniques and analyzing them to see if they have any merit.

One of these techniques/strategies I’ve learned about and analyzed over the past few months is The Permanent Portfolio created by Harry Browne in his book, Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes.

What is the Permanent Portfolio?

The goal of The Permanent Portfolio is to provide safety and stability in any economic climate to the money you cannot afford to lose. This is accomplished by selecting various investment components in such a way that at least one asset class is favored in any economic climate. The Portfolio components are as follows, each carrying equal weight for as long as you hold the Portfolio, employing annual re-balancing:

  • 25% in stocks, which do well in times of prosperity.
  • 25% in gold, which does well in times of inflation.
  • 25% in bonds, which increase in price during times of deflation.
  • 25% in cash, which does well in times of tight money/recession.

Existing studies on the Permanent Portfolio

There have been many studies that have looked at this type of investing over the past 5 years. Overall, the conclusions and opinions from these existing studies are mixed. Craig from Crawling Road saw enough evidence from his study of the efficacy of The Permanent Portfolio, and he appears to have adopted it successfully to his investing strategy.

On the other hand, William Bernstein and Geoff Considine feel that while The Permanent Portfolio strategy itself has merit, individual investors who flock to this strategy are most likely “chasing returns” and probably lack the discipline to stick to the allocation dictated over the long-term, causing failure/loss of money to occur. This is due to the fact that the portfolio could be essentially flat-lined while the overall stock market is increasing 20%! An investor must have the discipline to stick to the strategy in these sorts of times.

I was not ready to automatically execute The Permanent Portfolio strategy for my own investing after reading the existing studies above for the following reasons:

  1. The use of raw index prices in existing studies is not ideal. I would want to still see good performance and risk trends when common investment vehicles (ETFs or index funds) are used exclusively to construct the portfolio.
  2. Use of physical gold metal holdings in existing studies is not ideal. Since the studies discussed above used gold market prices, I’d want to perform my own analysis using an index fund or ETF to see how performance held up without the use of physical metal.
  3. Permanent Portfolio performance comparison against a more aggressive stock asset allocation. In the existing studies, the most aggressive asset allocation that was compared against The Permanent Portfolio was a 60% equity, 40% bond asset mix. However, for a younger person such as me who can take on more risk, I would be curious to see how the performance compares to a more aggressive equity asset allocation, such as 75% equity, 25% fixed income.
  4. Use of yearly rebalancing in existing studies is not ideal. I currently employ monthly portfolio analysis (and rebalancing if needed), and as such, I’d be interested to find out how The Permanent Portfolio fairs using monthly rebalancing analysis.

Refined Permanent Portfolio performance analysis

In order to address the four considerations in the previous section, I set about defining the financial instruments that would construct The “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, a hypothetical portfolio consisting of a $10,000 starting value. The components I selected are shown below.

  • 25% in stocks – Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund (ticker symbol: VFINX).
  • 25% in gold. Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (ticker symbol: VGPMX).
  • 25% in bonds. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (ticker symbol: VUSTX).
  • 25% in cash. Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund (ticker symbol: VSGBX).

The table below summarizes the performance of the Refined Permanent Portfolio described above over the last 20 years (ending the beginning of October 2011) compared to a 100% stock and a 75% stock, 25% bond portfolio. The historical prices data source is Yahoo Finance. Monthly rebalancing is performed to maintain the appropriate asset allocation targets.

Permanent Portfolio Performance Table

Examining the table above, it can be seen that the Refined Permanent Portfolio does indeed outperform both the 100% stock and the stock/bond portfolios by a significant margin, as evidenced by nearly a 60% improvement in return on your original investment (20-year overall ROI), along with exhibiting 30-70% lower risk (lower standard deviation of annual returns).

Essentially, The Permanent Portfolio resulted in overall greater returns because it is insulated against the big decreases in price stemming from the often-volatile stock market. This phenomenon is best illustrated by the graph below, which shows the investment value growth of a $10,000 starting investment in the Refined Permanent Portfolio (blue plot) vs. a 100% stock portfolio (red plot).

The enhanced stability of the Permanent Portfolio was especially apparent in the 1997-2002 time frame (see black square in graph below), when the 100% stock portfolio first increased by more than 100%, only to then decrease nearly 50% in one to two years. The Permanent Portfolio was protected from this huge swing in prices, effectively preserving investor capital.

Permanent Portfolio Graph

Should investors incorporate the Permanent Portfolio?

Because of the consistency of the Permanent Portfolio over the past 50 years in either being competitive with or exceeding the long-term returns obtained using traditional stock/fixed income portfolios, I am convinced that The Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well over the long-term.

However, I believe that investors should only adopt the strategy in full if the following conditions are true.

  • They will truly stick with it over the 20 years needed to obtain results competitive with or beating stocks, or
  • If they are merely looking for a conservative (not market-beating) strategy to preserve capital and stay ahead of inflation (which coincidentally, is the true goal for The Permanent Portfolio).

However, honestly, I feel that few investors (myself included) will have the resolve to stick with the strategy for the long-term, for the reasons mentioned below.

  • The majority of investors that are interested in The Permanent Portfolio at the current time are simply looking at it as a possible way to “beat the market,” and not as a method to preserve capital, as it is truly intended.
  • The Permanent Portfolio strategy’s returns have a low correlation with the returns of the stock market (a correlation coefficient of 0.58), meaning that if you employ this strategy, you’ll only enjoy any gains happening in the stock market about half the time. (Tthink about completely being excluded from the euphoria of the increase in the stock market in the late 1990′s. Would you be OK with that?) In my opinion, the low correlation of The Permanent Portfolio with the stock market makes it nearly impossible for investors looking to aggressively grow their money to stay with The Permanent Portfolio strategy.

Instead, most investors would be better served by sticking with an investing strategy using and a more “traditional” asset allocation that has a slightly higher correlation with the overall market.

Do you think that the Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well in the next 20 years? Do you feel you’d have the discipline to stick with the strategy, even if it meant underperforming the rest of the market for long periods of time?

The complete set of calculations of the historical performance of the “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, correlation coefficients matrices, and price history of the proposed index mutual fund Permanent Portfolio is included in this Google Docs Spreadsheet.

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According to the Federal Reserve’s research published last week, overall American credit card debt increased at an annual rate of 7.5% during the final quarter of last year. This could mean that consumers are feeling more confident about the economy and are willing to take the risk that they will have money in the future to pay off debt. These numbers are seasonally adjusted, too, so it’s not a result of holiday spending.

For any individual or family, increased use of credit cards might cause financial turmoil if debt spirals out of control. Even people who understand the guiding principle of spending less than you earn can fall into a debt trap if they spend what they expect to earn rather than what they have in the bank to cover their debt.

Credit card debt consolidationAt some point after a period of indiscriminate spending, the monthly minimum payments on total credit card debt could exceed leftover cash flow after paying for the necessities like food and shelter. This might be a good opportunity to consolidate the credit card balances onto one card. This has the benefit of, in many cases, lowering your total monthly minimum payment. Additionally, you might find a way to significantly lower your interest rate. Of course, if you pay less towards your credit cards, it will take longer to get out of debt, but in some cases when cash flow is tight, having the extra income at the end of the month for saving or for meeting all of your ongoing expenses is more important.

In a perfect world, you would be able to transfer all your credit card balances onto one card that has the following features:

  • 0% APR for the life of your balance.
  • No balance transfer fee.
  • A low minimum monthly payment requirement.

The best credit card is going to be difficult to find, and if you do find one that meets these criteria, it may be out of your reach in terms of qualification. The goal is to find the best deal you can, either from within your current cards or by applying for a new 0% balance transfer credit card.

Start by calling the number on the back of each credit card. Explain to the customer service representative that you plan to move balances from your other cards to this card to pay off your debt, and ask for their best deal for balance transfers. You may find that the issuer offers you an unpublished deal. Be sure to ask about introductory APR, length of the introductory term, regular APR for balance transfers after the introductory period expires, balance transfer fee, and monthly minimum payment.

At the same time, while you’re talking to the customer service representative for each card, you might want to take the opportunity to ask for a lower ongoing interest rate on your card. It can’t hurt. It’s easy to ask, and you might get a cost-saving result immediately.

Don’t make the decision on the phone, however. Write down the terms the issuer offers and do the same for all other cards you own. This will help you compare the offers with the published offers from issuers offering balance transfer deals. Once you compile all information, you can make an informed decision about the best card for consolidating your credit card debt.

You may also wish to compare these offers with a loan for consolidation. Many people have had luck asking for a loan on a peer-to-peer lending network like LendingClub and Prosper, but your state may regulate what you are able to receive through these services.

Watch out for companies that offer to consolidate your credit card debt. Many charge an up-front fee and don’t provide any kind of cost savings beyond what you could easily achieve on your own. At worst, some charge an up-front fee and disappear. If you must seek outside help for your debt, go to a well-vetted non-profit organization that will provide advice, not charge you for their services. Even with this in mind, you’ll need to be careful; some companies appear to be non-profit credit counseling agencies until you look very closely.

Once you transfer your balances to a card, don’t use that card for any other spending. It should be dedicated to paying off your balances over time. Also, don’t immediately close your existing credit cards. You can cut them up, leaving one for emergency spending until you build up an emergency fund in the form of a savings account. Closing your credit card accounts might damage your credit score at a time when you might prefer to keep your number as high as possible.

When I first realized I needed to get out of debt and I had balances across several credit cards, this was one the first steps I took in order to get my finances organized, save money, and find a way to get and stay out of debt. What are your suggestions for consolidating your credit card debt?

Photo: sovietmole
Federal Reserve

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The financial industry has been mostly static for centuries, with companies doing business and offering services not much different from how the companies operated for earlier generations of consumers. When there is innovation in the industry, it generally comes from smaller companies and entrepreneurs looking to fill a need that isn’t covered by larger, less flexible entities.

While today’s start-up companies are changing how customers interact with their money, most of these small business owners have the ultimate goal of selling their businesses to larger, more established companies who will then incorporate these new services if the start-up companies cannot become industry leaders without help. In the mean time, start-ups compete for funding from a growing community of investors in the industry.

Here are ten customer-facing personal finance start-up companies that could help change the way consumers interact with money. Some have already been thriving for a few years, while others are new to the industry. These are not in any particular order.

BrightScope

BrightScope401(k) plans are tough to evaluate from the plan descriptions and prospectuses offered by plan administrators to employees. Employees can’t always choose the best investment options for them due to limitations by plan administrators. Additionally, plan administrators often change available investment options and automatically transfer employees’ money from one fund to another without sufficient notification to the investors.

BrightScope lets employees evaluate their company’s 401(k) plan. If, for example, you have two job offers and you’re comparing compensation, you can take the quality of the 401(k) plan into account by researching these companies. Each company receives an overall rating as well as scores in important categories including total plan cost, company generosity, and participation rate. You can directly compare each company with its industry peers.

BrightScope

The above image shows the overall rating for MetLife. For comparison with other companies in its industry, MetLife’s score of 73 is below Morgan Stanley’s 83.8.

LendingClub and Prosper

LendingClub LogoAs technology advances, it brings manufacturers and customers closer together, often eliminating the need for companies that stand in between, adding to the cost of products and services. In some ways, the financial industry is a “middle man.” Banks take deposits in the form of savings and checking accounts, and turn that money around and lend it to individuals and businesses in need of capital. Peer-to-peer lending companies like LendingClub and Prosper take deposits out of the process; lenders can choose borrowers and lend money directly or invest in a group of loans packaged as an investment product with measured risk.

State regulations prevent peer-to-peer lending from being available to all United States citizens, and the primary concern is that customers who may not be able to take advantage of loans from a bank turn to these options where they can be charged nearly-usurious rates. For many people, however, peer-to-peer lending has provided a solution that banks have been unable to fill, whether for borrowers or investors.

Jemstep

JemstepFor your investments that are not locked in a 401(k) with limited options, like your personal IRA or your taxable investment account, the variety of mutual funds and ETFs available is staggering. And unless you work with an unbiased financial planner, it can be difficult to choose the investments that will give you the best chance of making the most of every dollar you invest.

Jemstep is like an unbiased investment adviser with an immense set of data available to help you make investing decisions. You can create a profile for yourself that reflects your attitudes about investing. Most online investment recommendation engines stop at risk and time profiles, but Jemstep goes much further. You can decide how important fees are, whether you’re looking for actively managed funds or index funds, and whether potential tax plays a role in your investing decisions.

After calibrating your profile, Jemstep can evaluate your current portfolio and offer investment suggestions that are better suited to you.

Today, Jemstep announced it completed its Series A round of financing. Start-up companies look for funding from outside sources to grow their businesses before the business generates enough revenue on its own to finance its own operations. In total, Jemstep has raised $10.5 million from early investors in order to fund product development and hire employees.

HelloWallet

HelloWalletThere’s a need for consumers to better manage their own personal finances. Over the last decade, this has been the realm of software like Quicken and Microsoft Money, but the latter has disappeared from the market and the former is increasingly seen as an outdated piece of software. In recent years, a number of companies had been developing personal finance management software for a new generation, incorporating mobile options and focusing on reporting and trending rather than reconciliation, though the depth offered could not compete with Quicken. Many of these companies have disappeared, and the apparent winner, Mint.com, was purchased by Intuit, the makers of Quicken.

HelloWallet has emerged as a new competitor for Mint.com, but while Mint.com is now free, HelloWallet charges users a fee of $8.95 per month. For the fee, you can be sure that the recommendations you receive are unbiased — companies and products do not pay HelloWallet for advertising placement within the service. The goal of HelloWallet is focused more on overall financial advice than tracking. Mint.com has moved in this direction, as well, however.

Dwolla

DwollaMerchant account service is a big business rules by large companies. Each time you swipe your credit card or debit card, a number of companies get paid in addition to the retailer from which you’re buying a product or service. Small business that need to operate on tight profit margins to compete with larger businesses suffer in these situations, because a larger proportion of their revenue is dedicated to paying these fees.

PayPal entered the marketplace and attempted to shake up the industry, offering a new way for retailers to accept credit card payments and for individuals to initiate person-to-person payments without the help of a bank. Dwolla has taken this model and, rather than relying on linked credit cards, has found away to put the focus on cash. The cash focus could be more financially responsible for a large percentage of customers.

Dwolla charges lower fees and allows users to send cash from person to person or to pay for a purchase using your phone. Customers can transfer payments using e-mail, the web, or social media applications within Facebook and Twitter. By default, the $0.25 fee is paid by the store or the recipient, though the individual initiating the payment can change this option. Transactions less than $10 are free.

SecondMarket and SharesPost

SharesPostThe buzz today is about Facebook’s imminent initial public offering (IPO) of stock. Soon, Facebook will be a public company, and investors will be able to trade shares of the company in a liquid stock exchange. For most people, this will be the first opportunity to invest in Facebook, a company that has grown significantly over the last few years. Of course, those who own part of the company already, like early and current employees, will see the biggest benefit after an IPO, assuming the company continues to grow.

You don’t have to be an employee to own and trade shares of Facebook, however. Two companies have specialized in creating a market between a small number of common or preferred shareholders — usually employees but also capital funds — with the wider audience of investors. I signed up with SharesPost (review here) last year to gain access to Facebook shares.

Occasionally, SharesPost holds an auction of shares held by investors who wish to liquidate their holding for the best price, and investors interested in buying can participate in the auction by naming the amount of shares they’d like to purchase and the price willing to pay. If there’s a match, SharesPost handles the transfer of shares. Surprisingly, the share price for Facebook’s Class B common stock has been stable over the past year, particularly given the volume of trading is significantly lower than it would be on an open market. The price has moved from $33 to $34 per share. It will be interesting to see how the stock performs on the open market.

SecondMarket is similar to SharesPost in that it creates a market for financial products that don’t have an accessible exchange for trading. With SecondMarket, you can trade public equity, fixed income and bankruptcy claims in addition to private shares.

Google Wallet and mFoundry

Google WalletWith technology changing quickly, smaller companies are able to jump on new technology. Google is not exactly a smaller company, but the company’s development operations function like a start-up. Google also has the size to buy smaller companies with innovative ideas early in their development. Google Wallet, however, was developed in-house. New technology in mobile phones makes it easier to transmit information securely in close range, and retailers are using that technology to accept payments without swiping a card. An application stores credit card information, and when a receiving device is in range and the consumer initiates the transaction, his or her device sends the information securely to the retailers.

As more mobile devices incorporate this NFC technology, contactless transactions will continue to increase. This was a hot topic in the media several months ago, and I explained why Google Wallet would not catch on as quickly as people were predicting. Today, Google Wallet is still limited to using only Citi MasterCard credit cards or Google’s own reloadable debit card.

There’s a smaller company that has seemed to penetrate this market deeper from Google. Among mobile payments, mFoundry works with banks and credit unions to develop their own applications based on the company’s technology. I’ve focused on start-up companies that face the public rather than other businesses in this article, but mFoundry does both. Mobile banking has a long road to becoming a mature and ubiquitous service, but it’s these companies that will help bring the innovative services to consumers and bigger financial institutions.

There are many other personal finance start-up companies worth mentioning, but I limited this list to ten across a broad spectrum of personal finance to keep this article interesting and not too long. If you feel I’ve missed something substantial, please feel free to share your thoughts in the discussion area below this article.

Normally, I do not allow business spokespeople to promote their companies in the comments on Consumerism Commentary, but as long as it’s relevant, I’ll allow short comments intended to note companies looking for broader exposure in the personal finance space, but I still reserve the right to edit, moderate, or delete promotional content.

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The Budget Deficit and Debt: Is the Government Like a Household?

by Flexo

Financial experts tell families to “spend less than they earn” and “don’t pay interest to borrow money.” The government does the opposite, running a budget deficit and paying billions of taxpayer dollars every year in interest payments. There is no question that deficit spending by the federal government is a problem. Or is there? There’s ... Continue reading this article…

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Lending Money to Friends and Family

by Flexo

I try to keep the issue of money out of my personal relationships. Many people I know outside of those I know only online — my friends and family — read Consumerism Commentary. For the most part, they’re not interested because, I assume, they’d rather keep the issue of money out of our friendships — ... Continue reading this article…

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Take Control of Your Finances

by Flexo

This series explorers the concrete steps anyone can follow to take control of your finances. Many years ago, I felt like I was a victim of circumstances. Bad things, like job losses, apartment losses, and debt — even my girlfriend leaving me — were other people’s fault, a result of the world around me. I ... Continue reading this article…

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Resignation Complete and Weekend Reading

by Flexo

Don’t forget Consumerism Commentary is matching charitable contributions. It’s official. Earlier this week, I offered my resignation to the large corporation where I’ve been employed for just under a decade. I have less than two weeks to wrap up my projects and transition work to the rest of my team. It won’t be long before ... Continue reading this article…

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