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Today on the Consumerism Commentary Podcast, Jay Frosting and Luke Landes talk with Tavis Smiley, host of Tavis Smiley on PBS. With Dr. Cornel West, Tavis Smiley is the co-author of The Rich and the Rest of Us: A Poverty Manifesto. The interview in today’s podcast was scheduled to include Cornel West as well, but a court appearance prevented him from participating.

They discuss the causes and possible solutions of the growing problem of poverty in America, which Tavis says is a threat to democracy itself. Read this Consumerism Commentary article for more discussion about poverty with Tavis Smiley.

Consumerism Commentary Podcast
The Rich and the Rest of Us: S07E04 / 160

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Table of contents

The Rich and the Rest of Us on Amazon[00:00] Introduction from Jay Frosting
[00:33] Interview with Tavis Smiley
[01:08] How many Americans are affected by poverty
[04:03] Who poverty affects and why
[06:55] The social safety net and austerity
[10:26] The role of education
[13:58] How to fix poverty
[18:33] End

We always welcome feedback from listeners. If you have any comments for this episode or for any other, or if you have suggestions for future episodes, please leave us comments here or email us at podcast at this domain name.

Theme music by Mindcube.

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April is National Financial Literacy Month in the United States. This brings attention to the lack of a financial education young people receive in this country, both from their parents and from the education system. I disagree with most people about how to solve this issue. Many call for mandatory high school courses in personal finances, but there are many reasons why this has not been and will not be generally successful.

In the spirit of National Financial Literacy Month, I occasionally take some time to focus on some of the financial basics. This is information I would have liked to have had or to have thought about earlier in my life. It’s not necessarily the information that’s important, but having a role model — someone to emulate — who is proficient with money, to guide a young individual on a path towards financial independence. I’ve covered the basics of savings accounts, checking accounts, budgets, and interest previously, and today’s I’ll attempt to tackle the topic of investing.

Money investingInvesting is a massive topic. It can get quite complicated when you look at the types of investments available, each having their own quirks, rules, and purpose. Investing means different things to different people: you can invest in stocks, invest in an industry, invest in a business, and invest in your future. You can invest your money, your effort, or your time. All of these concepts can be radically different.

There is a general theme to all investing, however. While the purpose of saving is to have a foundation or short-term financial safety, investing is the choice people make when they want to build long-term financial stability or independence. When you create a plan for investing — and it’s better to start with a plan in mind even if you don’t really know what you want to do in the future — you think about the future. The expectation when you invest is that your wealth will grow. Compare this to savings, where your expectation is that your wealth is safe.

What do people invest in?

The most common investments are stocks. Stocks are shares of a business. When business owners want to raise money to help their businesses grow, they sell to investors pieces of ownership in that business. Most of the time the pieces are very small. For example, if you invest in one share of a company like Google, you’ll become an owner of the business — but you’ll own only about 0.0000003 percent of the company. And almost always, when you buy stocks, you don’t buy them from the company. Once a company decides to sell shares, the stocks are traded on exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange. When you buy stocks, you’re buying them from another investor who happens to be selling.

Overall, stocks perform well over long periods of time. If you buy a varied collection of stocks and hold them for several decades, your investments have a great chance of increasing in value. The best way to buy stocks, especially for someone new to investing, is to invest in a pre-determined package of stocks designed to match your investing goals and needs. That’s where mutual funds come in. Mutual funds are packages of stocks (or other investments) managed by a professional investor, and these packages often have a goal or style that the manager follows.

With any investment, stocks, mutual funds, or otherwise, there is a chance that you will lose money. This is the risk that’s associated with investing. While there’s a chance of your investment increasing in value over time, increasing your wealth, the opposite might happen. You could buy shares of a company that fails one month later, losing all your money. Investing in shares, therefore, requires lots of research to protect yourself from bad investments, but even lots of research can’t help you accurately predict whether your investment will be successful. That’s why mutual funds are more attractive investments. With mutual funds, you can use the same money to spread out among many investments, so if one company fails, it doesn’t affect your investment as much.

Bonds

Besides stocks and mutual funds consisting of stocks, the next most popular investments are bonds. Companies and governments issue bonds to raise money. Sometimes a government is looking to raise money for a specific project, like building a bridge, and will seek investors, promising to pay the investors back their contribution plus interest. Like stocks, bonds are designed to raise money, but for the investor bonds are safer, meaning they’re less likely to lose value than stocks.

In exchange for that safety, the possibility of growing your wealth with bonds is less than the possibility for doing the same with stocks or mutual funds consisting of stocks. Bonds have a maturity, though. You can buy and sell most stocks whenever you’d like, but when you buy bonds, you are committing to a relationship. When you buy a five-year bond, you will receive some income from the investment over the course of five years, but you won’t get all of your money back until the five year term is complete.

Mutual funds come in handy once again; if you like the relative safety of bonds, you can buy a mutual fund consisting of bonds. These can, with some exceptions, be purchased and sold at any time. Investing is a long-term activity, though, and investors shouldn’t be too concerned about frequent buying and selling.

The best type of mutual funds

I mentioned above that mutual funds are managed by a professional investor. This is an individual who makes decisions for you about which stocks or bonds to buy and sell. All of these professional investors cannot consistently pick the best investments, however. Index mutual funds are designed to take some of the human errors out of investing.

When the financial media talk about the Dow being up or the S&P being down, they’re talking about an index. Indexes (or indices if you prefer) track the overall progress of a representative sample of investments. Most investors can’t pick investments that outperform the indexes, so you’re better off just copying the indexes. You can do that easily by investing in an index mutual fund.

An additional benefit of index mutual funds is the low fee. Whenever you invest — whether you buy or sell — you pay fees. People invest with the intent of growing their wealth, and the best investors do that by reducing these fees. The worst investors buy and sell frequently and, for the most part, make the professionals who collect the fees rich rather than building wealth for themselves over the long-term. If you choose wisely, index mutual funds are often the best investments for reaching your long-term goals while saving money. It’s a great value.

Other investments

ETFs have increased in popularity in recent years. ETFs are exchange-traded funds. The financial industry loves these investments because they have the appeal of mutual funds with the added benefit of being able to be bought and sold during the day, unlike mutual funds which trade only at the end of the day. Of course the industry loves ETFs; they encourage investors to trade investments frequently, thus increasing fees from trading. There’s no need for long-term investors to invest in ETFs. You can avoid these rather than playing into they hype.

The menu of investments is lengthy, particularly once you start looking at derivatives, stock options, and other complicated investments not particularly relevant to a beginning investor. Stick with stocks (broadly invested), bonds, and mutual funds unless you have a large sum of money you don’t mind losing. Most people don’t.

Retirement-specific investing

The government offers tax benefits for people who invest for the future. Many people working in a career look forward to the day they can leave their jobs behind and relax with the remaining decades of their lives. The government help subsidize people who no longer work, so you can be sure those in political power are interested in encouraging people to fed for themselves.

The 401(k) investment, named for the section of the tax code that contains its definition, is one of the most popular ways to invest for your retirement and receive a tax benefit for doing so. You may be automatically enrolled in a 401(k) when you start a new job, or you may need to sign up for yourself. You can reserve a portion of each paycheck for your retirement. All that you reserve must be left invested in order to receive the tax benefit (and avoid a penalty) except in certain circumstances. As a result, you’re putting some money away, untouchable, for many years.

An IRA (Individual Retirement Account or Agreement) is similar to the 401(k) in that respect, but you can also sign up for an IRA as an individual rather than as an employee of a business by contacting a broker directly.

Neither an IRA nor a 401(k) are investment types. They are not like stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. Instead, they are packages that can contain a varied array of investments. Most 401(k) plans contains mutual funds, but you can invest in almost anything within your IRA.

Points to keep in mind

  • When you invest, keep in mind that the idea is not to guess which investments will make you rich in a short period of time. Investing is a long-term endeavor, and you need diversity and patience in order to succeed.
  • Risk and reward are correlated. The riskier investment types like stocks can grow your wealth more, but they can also devastate your finances. Finding the right balance is a personal decision.
  • Studies have shown that the best predictions of long-term performance are the fees. Always research the fees involved with any investment type or activity so you understand completely where your money is going and how much you get to keep.

Photo: Images_of_Money

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Preservation of capital is an important aspect of any financial plan, but in today’s economy, this is impossible without taking on some risk. At one time, you could confidently place any money you might need within one year in a high-yield savings account and be relatively confident that your money could buy at least as much a year in the future than it could buy the day you deposited your funds. Interest rates were relatively coordinated with the rate of inflation.

That’s not the case today. The Department of Labor released the latest inflation data. It should be no surprise to most consumers that the changes in the price of gas led to an increase in the energy index of 3.2 percent over the last twelve months (ending February). The inflation rate for all items is 2.9 percent. While the government-reported inflation rate doesn’t translate to the actual increase in expenses any one individual experiences year over year, it’s the best benchmark we currently have for a generalized view of the increase in prices.

And it’s the measure we use to determine how much purchasing power savers lose. If your savings account isn’t earning at least 2.9 percent after tax, you’re losing money in real terms by placing it in a bank. With banks offering less than 1 percent interest before taxes on their best high-yield savings accounts, purchasing power losses accelerate. Placing your cash under a mattress to earn zero interest is a worse idea, so are there any other options providing a safe way to maintain purchasing power?

Money BagsNot really. Using a savings account is great for funds you might need in an emergency, because you can access the money quickly without worrying about selling an asset. Savers have to understand that having an emergency fund is a compromise; in return for the safety of an FDIC-insured account, savers waive the right to preserve real value, at least in today’s economy.

Any other options for preserving capital introduce risk.

  • Investing in the stock market. Despite some recent frenzy about the stock market, with prices of the major indexes reaching near-term highs and day-over-day increases exceeding the best-performing day of the year thus far, there have also been daily price decreases reflecting the worst performance of the year. The stock market is incredibly volatile. For the long-term, it’s a good place to be, but there’s no guarantee that your capital will be preserved for when you need it.
  • Buying real estate. For years, families saw the house they live in as a way to store their wealth. The belief was unfortunately based on the myth that real estate values never decrease. Well, any asset can find itself in a bubble, whether they be tulips, stocks, or houses, and people who relied on real estate’s ever-increasing value to make a living have had a difficult time in recent years. It’s been terrible news for real estate flippers, but the effects hit single-house homeowners just as hard.

    Although timing the market is always dangerous, with low prices and low interest rates, if you can qualify and if the time is right for your family, now could be the right time to buy a house, particularly if you’re looking to live there for a long time.

  • Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). You can buy this investment product directly from the U.S. Treasury. Twice a year, you receive interest as well as an adjustment to your principal balance based on the inflation rate. This is basically a bond that will only lose value in the event of deflation. If you must sell TIPS after the value has dipped below your initial investment, you will still receive your full initial investment back.

    There’s no risk in losing money, and this is the closest you might be able to get to true preservation of capital during inflation. Keep in mind, however, that the government’s reported inflation value doesn’t necessarily reflect any one household’s experienced rate of inflation. The government’s rate used for calculating TIPS adjustments, the CPI-U, uses the prices of a combination of goods that weights items in a way that might not be relevant to most consumers.

  • Buying gold. Investing in gold is traditionally a good way to hedge against inflation, but the price of gold fluctuates. Like all commodities, the value of gold at any particular time is subject to the whims of commodities traders. An investment in gold is not as stable as its reputation. The price fluctuation may be due to fluctuations in the value of the dollar or of any other fiat currency, but the cause is irrelevant because the U.S. dollar is the world’s standard for currency, and if that ever changes, it would be another currency or combination of currencies that becomes the standard, not a commodity like gold. The days of the gold standard are over.

    Furthermore, most people who invest in gold use ETFs or mutual funds due to convenience. It would be inefficient and expensive to store and secure a significant amount of physical gold bars. Once you are dealing with electronic trades rather than a physical manifestation of metal, you’re subjecting yourself even more to the whim of the financial industry.

With low interest rates and increasing inflation, this may be a good time, from a financial perspective, to borrow money. You can do more with someone else’s money, repaying the loan with money valued less in the future. Borrowing money is of course not a good idea for people who could find themselves in trouble with debt, as interest costs could spiral out of control, but if you look at the numbers, borrowers are getting a much better deal, relatively speaking, than savers.

In today’s economy, if you are preserving your money, how are you doing so?

Photo: Lord Jim

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This is a guest article by Jacob, creator of the personal finance blog, My Personal Finance Journey. In the article, Jacob analyzes the Permanent Portfolio, a theory presented by Harry Browne, to determine whether investing along the theory’s guidelines can help investors beat the stock market.

Investors in general always seem to be on the lookout for a sure-fire strategy that they can use to outperform the market. Unfortunately, the reality is that these strategies are difficult-to-impossible to find. For this reason, I personally invest in a portfolio of passively managed low-cost index mutual funds from various asset classes and rebalance back to my asset allocation targets periodically.

Since my investing strategy does not take up too much time to maintain each month (in fact, individual stock investors might even call it “boring”), I am constantly interested in learning about new investing techniques and analyzing them to see if they have any merit.

One of these techniques/strategies I’ve learned about and analyzed over the past few months is The Permanent Portfolio created by Harry Browne in his book, Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes.

What is the Permanent Portfolio?

The goal of The Permanent Portfolio is to provide safety and stability in any economic climate to the money you cannot afford to lose. This is accomplished by selecting various investment components in such a way that at least one asset class is favored in any economic climate. The Portfolio components are as follows, each carrying equal weight for as long as you hold the Portfolio, employing annual re-balancing:

  • 25% in stocks, which do well in times of prosperity.
  • 25% in gold, which does well in times of inflation.
  • 25% in bonds, which increase in price during times of deflation.
  • 25% in cash, which does well in times of tight money/recession.

Existing studies on the Permanent Portfolio

There have been many studies that have looked at this type of investing over the past 5 years. Overall, the conclusions and opinions from these existing studies are mixed. Craig from Crawling Road saw enough evidence from his study of the efficacy of The Permanent Portfolio, and he appears to have adopted it successfully to his investing strategy.

On the other hand, William Bernstein and Geoff Considine feel that while The Permanent Portfolio strategy itself has merit, individual investors who flock to this strategy are most likely “chasing returns” and probably lack the discipline to stick to the allocation dictated over the long-term, causing failure/loss of money to occur. This is due to the fact that the portfolio could be essentially flat-lined while the overall stock market is increasing 20%! An investor must have the discipline to stick to the strategy in these sorts of times.

I was not ready to automatically execute The Permanent Portfolio strategy for my own investing after reading the existing studies above for the following reasons:

  1. The use of raw index prices in existing studies is not ideal. I would want to still see good performance and risk trends when common investment vehicles (ETFs or index funds) are used exclusively to construct the portfolio.
  2. Use of physical gold metal holdings in existing studies is not ideal. Since the studies discussed above used gold market prices, I’d want to perform my own analysis using an index fund or ETF to see how performance held up without the use of physical metal.
  3. Permanent Portfolio performance comparison against a more aggressive stock asset allocation. In the existing studies, the most aggressive asset allocation that was compared against The Permanent Portfolio was a 60% equity, 40% bond asset mix. However, for a younger person such as me who can take on more risk, I would be curious to see how the performance compares to a more aggressive equity asset allocation, such as 75% equity, 25% fixed income.
  4. Use of yearly rebalancing in existing studies is not ideal. I currently employ monthly portfolio analysis (and rebalancing if needed), and as such, I’d be interested to find out how The Permanent Portfolio fairs using monthly rebalancing analysis.

Refined Permanent Portfolio performance analysis

In order to address the four considerations in the previous section, I set about defining the financial instruments that would construct The “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, a hypothetical portfolio consisting of a $10,000 starting value. The components I selected are shown below.

  • 25% in stocks – Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund (ticker symbol: VFINX).
  • 25% in gold. Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (ticker symbol: VGPMX).
  • 25% in bonds. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (ticker symbol: VUSTX).
  • 25% in cash. Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund (ticker symbol: VSGBX).

The table below summarizes the performance of the Refined Permanent Portfolio described above over the last 20 years (ending the beginning of October 2011) compared to a 100% stock and a 75% stock, 25% bond portfolio. The historical prices data source is Yahoo Finance. Monthly rebalancing is performed to maintain the appropriate asset allocation targets.

Permanent Portfolio Performance Table

Examining the table above, it can be seen that the Refined Permanent Portfolio does indeed outperform both the 100% stock and the stock/bond portfolios by a significant margin, as evidenced by nearly a 60% improvement in return on your original investment (20-year overall ROI), along with exhibiting 30-70% lower risk (lower standard deviation of annual returns).

Essentially, The Permanent Portfolio resulted in overall greater returns because it is insulated against the big decreases in price stemming from the often-volatile stock market. This phenomenon is best illustrated by the graph below, which shows the investment value growth of a $10,000 starting investment in the Refined Permanent Portfolio (blue plot) vs. a 100% stock portfolio (red plot).

The enhanced stability of the Permanent Portfolio was especially apparent in the 1997-2002 time frame (see black square in graph below), when the 100% stock portfolio first increased by more than 100%, only to then decrease nearly 50% in one to two years. The Permanent Portfolio was protected from this huge swing in prices, effectively preserving investor capital.

Permanent Portfolio Graph

Should investors incorporate the Permanent Portfolio?

Because of the consistency of the Permanent Portfolio over the past 50 years in either being competitive with or exceeding the long-term returns obtained using traditional stock/fixed income portfolios, I am convinced that The Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well over the long-term.

However, I believe that investors should only adopt the strategy in full if the following conditions are true.

  • They will truly stick with it over the 20 years needed to obtain results competitive with or beating stocks, or
  • If they are merely looking for a conservative (not market-beating) strategy to preserve capital and stay ahead of inflation (which coincidentally, is the true goal for The Permanent Portfolio).

However, honestly, I feel that few investors (myself included) will have the resolve to stick with the strategy for the long-term, for the reasons mentioned below.

  • The majority of investors that are interested in The Permanent Portfolio at the current time are simply looking at it as a possible way to “beat the market,” and not as a method to preserve capital, as it is truly intended.
  • The Permanent Portfolio strategy’s returns have a low correlation with the returns of the stock market (a correlation coefficient of 0.58), meaning that if you employ this strategy, you’ll only enjoy any gains happening in the stock market about half the time. (Tthink about completely being excluded from the euphoria of the increase in the stock market in the late 1990′s. Would you be OK with that?) In my opinion, the low correlation of The Permanent Portfolio with the stock market makes it nearly impossible for investors looking to aggressively grow their money to stay with The Permanent Portfolio strategy.

Instead, most investors would be better served by sticking with an investing strategy using and a more “traditional” asset allocation that has a slightly higher correlation with the overall market.

Do you think that the Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well in the next 20 years? Do you feel you’d have the discipline to stick with the strategy, even if it meant underperforming the rest of the market for long periods of time?

The complete set of calculations of the historical performance of the “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, correlation coefficients matrices, and price history of the proposed index mutual fund Permanent Portfolio is included in this Google Docs Spreadsheet.

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