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Occasionally, Consumerism Commentary readers send in questions about handling their finances. I am not a financial planner, so I have no certification claiming I’m qualified to give financial advice. I am not an investment adviser, so I certainly won’t be recommending stocks. I like the opportunity to address financial questions that other readers may be concerned about, and if I have an opinion or two on the matter, I’d be happy to share.

Readers may disagree with my opinion, or they may agree. Addressing these questions is also an opportunity to instigate discussions. As with any advice you may receive, it’s always good to check with a professional beforehand, particularly if the decision could have significant effects on your financial condition.

Here is a question I received from Steve:

I’m 24 years old and I haven’t started any retirement savings, but I know I need to start. My company offers a 401k benefit but does not offer any match. I was wondering, would this 401k’s tax benefits still be worth taking advantage of over other retirement investment vehicles? Would a Roth IRA be wiser? Or something else?

There are two primary tax benefits to investing in a 401(k) plan. You contributions and earnings grow tax-free until you retire, and your contributions can be deducted from your income for tax purposes if your income is low enough. I describe and explain the 401(k) contribution limits here.

Taxes are a distant second next to the best benefit of most 401(k) plans: matching contributions from your employer. Employers can structure the matching contributions in a variety of forms. One of the most common is for your employer to match 100% of your contribution up to a certain percent of your salary. For every dollar you take out of your paycheck to invest in your 401(k), your employer might also contribute a dollar of its own money. This is an immediate 100% return, much better than what you can expect from any of your investments. If your employer matches your contributions, find a way — any way — to contribute to your 401(k) at least enough to take advantage of the maximum matching benefit. Don’t turn down free money.

The choice to invest in a 401(k) gets more difficult when there is no matching contribution from your employer. At that point, your 401(k) becomes just another tax-advantaged investment account. Unless your 401(k) gives you access to low-cost investments, this account should no longer be a priority. Most 401(k) plans include fund choices that are not as inexpensive as choices you can find elsewhere, like at Vanguard or Fidelity. Low costs correlate to better investment results over long periods of time, and at age 24, this particular reader could be waiting many decades before accessing this money.

You can compare costs by reading the prospectuses for the investment choices in your 401(k) and comparing the expense ratios and other fees with similar funds managed by Vanguard.

Without an employer match, consider maximizing your IRA before contributing to your 401(k). A traditional IRA offers the same tax benefits as a 401(k), and a Roth IRA forgoes the tax deduction for your contributions today for a tax deduction in retirement. That’s a good choice if you expect that you’re in a lower tax bracket today than you will be in retirement. Considering the economy today, it’s probably a good bet that all taxes will be higher in thirty or forty years as the country struggles to pay its expenses, but you never know without a crystal ball.

While your investment choices in your 401(k) are limited, you can invest in almost anything in your IRA, depending on how you open the account. Your investments in IRAs are subject to an annual limit. If you have a strong enough cash flow to schedule your IRA investments throughout the year to the maximum and still have free cash flow, then you should consider investing what you can in a 401(k) without an employer’s matching contribution if your income isn’t above the maximum for taking advantage of the tax deduction. Otherwise, just invest using a taxable (regular, non-retirement) brokerage account. You can name the account “For Retirement” and leave it alone for forty years.

I wish I had been thinking like Steve when I was 24. I’m not sure I knew about the existence of 401(k) plans when I was that age. My employer didn’t offer a 403(b) plan — the non-profit version of the 401(k) — until the following year or two, and my cash flow was so tight, there was no matching contribution, and the investments were so expensive I just laughed. My only investment was in the form of a recently-converted UTMA or UGMA invested with what was probably savings bonds I received as gifts as a kid.

In reality, just making any choice for investing is better than making no choice. Whether you invest in a 401(k), IRA, or taxable account, just the act of putting money aside for retirement puts you ahead of half of all Americans in taking steps to ensure you have a stronger future.

Do you agree or disagree with the strategy outlined above? Share your thoughts on what you might do if your employer were not to offer a matching contribution on your 401(k).

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Just when you thought the era of new online banks splashing into the market was over, TIAA-CREF is on the hunt for customers’ deposits. TIAA-CREF Trust Company, FSB was established in 1998, and the bank just began offering deposit accounts in the last month. The products, under the name TIAA Direct, are intended to compete with the best online savings accounts and checking accounts, and as of now, the interest rates are attractive.

I have some of my retirement funds invested with TIAA-CREF’s mutual fund division, and after a frustrating effort with the company to fund my SEP IRA several years ago, I decided to leave the company in favor of Vanguard for my investments.

I initially chose to invest with TIAA-CREF due to their low minimum investment amount and their association, at least in my mind, with the education industry and non-profit organizations. Several companies within the TIAA-CREF family are non-profit organizations, but the government revoked its 501(c)(3) status in 1998. As a result, the company does not enjoy the same tax benefits as other non-profit organizations.

My experience with the investment arm of TIAA-CREF and the lack of a need to open yet another savings account may prevent me from opening a new account with TIAA Direct. Customers who are looking for the best interest rates would do well to investigate the bank further, though. When a new account arrives on the scene, it will attempt to attract new depositors, and that often includes offering a great interest rate for savings accounts.

I’ve found that for the most part over the last decade, banks who offer overly attractive terms and initiate a significant marketing endeavor after their arrival soon lower interest rates. Once the company has received its target amount of deposits, there is less motivation to attract new customers. Some banks have even closed their doors to new customers once their target was reached.

The following details are as of March 20, 2012, and are subject to change at any time.

TIAA Direct is attracting new customers to its basic High Yield Savings account with a 1.25% APY, one of the best interest rates currently available in the United States. This rate is about twice as much as the interest offered by some of TIAA Direct’s most relevant competitors.

There is a $25 minimum initial deposit and there are no fees. The savings account and the companion Money Market account are limited to six non-ATM transactions each month, as mandated by banking regulations. The Money Market account offers the same interest rate and minimum deposit as the High Yield Savings account but also offers check-writing privileges. Both accounts include an ATM card.

The bank is also offering an interest checking account with interest rates ranging from 0.05% to 0.15% APY. Customers will receive free checks, a debit card, and the ability to deposit checks using an iPhone application. Again, there is a initial deposit requirement of at least $25.

Once these accounts are open and funded with at least $25, there is no ongoing minimum balance requirement.

If you’re willing to lock up your savings for a period of time, TIAA Direct is also offering certificates of deposit with maturities of six months, one year, and two years. The interest rates for these accounts are lower than the High Yield Savings account and the Money Market account. You’re better off keeping your money in a savings account earning more interest and keeping your savings liquid until the CD rates exceed the rates earned in the savings account.

There are some finer points to consider; if you expect the savings account interest rate to dip below the best CD interest rate within the next two years, and you expect the CD rate to dip as well, you might be better off locking in the two-year CD rate today. It’s impossible to predict the future though, and you can make these decisions based only on what you know. There’s a good chance that the high interest rate on the savings and money market accounts won’t last, as has been the case for banks looking to make some noise and attract depositors right away.

There’s an indication of a lack of transparency, a troubling sign. There is a fee to withdraw funds from your CD before it reaches maturity, but you can only discover the details of this fee in the disclosure document customers receive only after funding the CD. You have to lock up your money before you’re told how much it’ll cost you to withdraw your cash in an emergency. Other banks typical penalize customers for withdrawing money from a CD by charging a fee based on the interest accrued in the account.

The real tests of a savings account, particularly in an environment where interest rates are low, are whether your money will be accessible when you need it and how well you’re able to work with customer service. TIAA Direct is new on the block, but if it inherits its customer service from its parent company, based on the feedback from hundreds of customers visiting Consumerism Commentary, potential customers may want to steer clear of this bank’s new deposit products.

Note: Richard Barrington from Money-Rates.com has asked for an interview with a spokesperson for TIAA Direct, but the company is saying they are not yet ready to launch these new products. You can, however, open a new account using the TIAA Direct website, and it is open to the public.

Photo: frankh

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After a few years of testing this new security feature, Vanguard has begun rolling out voice pattern recognition technology for security. According to the representative I spoke to today, this feature will be available for Flagship customers first, and all customers will eventually follow. Voice recognition adds another layer of security to your financial accounts, and I’m impressed with it so far.

When you call a Vanguard representative to discuss your account, they ask a security question to verify your identity. They may ask your pet’s name, your high school mascot, or some other piece of information a stranger might not know. This isn’t very secure; a friend or family member could easily know the answers to many of the questions typically used for security verification. It is much more difficult to fool voice pattern recognition. Even a digital recording of your voice will not have the same acoustic properties that can be detected over the phone.

Voice Pattern WaveformThe biggest benefit of this level of security is that it eliminates the need for Medallion signature guarantees for most financial transactions for which they were previously required. Signature guarantees can be a hassle; for a financial institution that conducts is business mostly online and over the phone, you might need to visit a local bank or credit union with identification in order to secure a signature guarantee, and then it will take some time to send the signature guarantee to Vanguard.

To enable voice recognition today, call a Vanguard representative today. You’ll be asked to repeat a passphrase several times: “At Vanguard, my voice is my password.” The security system will analyze your voice, which will act as a secure key. After confirming that you’re ready to begin using voice recognition as a security check, the new technology will be activated for you with your next call to Vanguard.

After entering your Social Security number via your phone’s keypad as usual, will be prompted to speak the passphrase. It sounds like this technology could be easily fooled through recording, or to be ineffective depending on the quality of your phone line, but it’s much more secure and accurate than the existing system.

If your security check through voice recognition fails when you call, you will be asked to answer a security question. This fallback can solve any issues if you’re in a noisy room, for example, but that reduces the level of security.

Would you use voice pattern recognition to verify your identity for financial transactions?

Photo: altemark

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This is a guest article by Jacob, creator of the personal finance blog, My Personal Finance Journey. In the article, Jacob analyzes the Permanent Portfolio, a theory presented by Harry Browne, to determine whether investing along the theory’s guidelines can help investors beat the stock market.

Investors in general always seem to be on the lookout for a sure-fire strategy that they can use to outperform the market. Unfortunately, the reality is that these strategies are difficult-to-impossible to find. For this reason, I personally invest in a portfolio of passively managed low-cost index mutual funds from various asset classes and rebalance back to my asset allocation targets periodically.

Since my investing strategy does not take up too much time to maintain each month (in fact, individual stock investors might even call it “boring”), I am constantly interested in learning about new investing techniques and analyzing them to see if they have any merit.

One of these techniques/strategies I’ve learned about and analyzed over the past few months is The Permanent Portfolio created by Harry Browne in his book, Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes.

What is the Permanent Portfolio?

The goal of The Permanent Portfolio is to provide safety and stability in any economic climate to the money you cannot afford to lose. This is accomplished by selecting various investment components in such a way that at least one asset class is favored in any economic climate. The Portfolio components are as follows, each carrying equal weight for as long as you hold the Portfolio, employing annual re-balancing:

  • 25% in stocks, which do well in times of prosperity.
  • 25% in gold, which does well in times of inflation.
  • 25% in bonds, which increase in price during times of deflation.
  • 25% in cash, which does well in times of tight money/recession.

Existing studies on the Permanent Portfolio

There have been many studies that have looked at this type of investing over the past 5 years. Overall, the conclusions and opinions from these existing studies are mixed. Craig from Crawling Road saw enough evidence from his study of the efficacy of The Permanent Portfolio, and he appears to have adopted it successfully to his investing strategy.

On the other hand, William Bernstein and Geoff Considine feel that while The Permanent Portfolio strategy itself has merit, individual investors who flock to this strategy are most likely “chasing returns” and probably lack the discipline to stick to the allocation dictated over the long-term, causing failure/loss of money to occur. This is due to the fact that the portfolio could be essentially flat-lined while the overall stock market is increasing 20%! An investor must have the discipline to stick to the strategy in these sorts of times.

I was not ready to automatically execute The Permanent Portfolio strategy for my own investing after reading the existing studies above for the following reasons:

  1. The use of raw index prices in existing studies is not ideal. I would want to still see good performance and risk trends when common investment vehicles (ETFs or index funds) are used exclusively to construct the portfolio.
  2. Use of physical gold metal holdings in existing studies is not ideal. Since the studies discussed above used gold market prices, I’d want to perform my own analysis using an index fund or ETF to see how performance held up without the use of physical metal.
  3. Permanent Portfolio performance comparison against a more aggressive stock asset allocation. In the existing studies, the most aggressive asset allocation that was compared against The Permanent Portfolio was a 60% equity, 40% bond asset mix. However, for a younger person such as me who can take on more risk, I would be curious to see how the performance compares to a more aggressive equity asset allocation, such as 75% equity, 25% fixed income.
  4. Use of yearly rebalancing in existing studies is not ideal. I currently employ monthly portfolio analysis (and rebalancing if needed), and as such, I’d be interested to find out how The Permanent Portfolio fairs using monthly rebalancing analysis.

Refined Permanent Portfolio performance analysis

In order to address the four considerations in the previous section, I set about defining the financial instruments that would construct The “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, a hypothetical portfolio consisting of a $10,000 starting value. The components I selected are shown below.

  • 25% in stocks – Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund (ticker symbol: VFINX).
  • 25% in gold. Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (ticker symbol: VGPMX).
  • 25% in bonds. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (ticker symbol: VUSTX).
  • 25% in cash. Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund (ticker symbol: VSGBX).

The table below summarizes the performance of the Refined Permanent Portfolio described above over the last 20 years (ending the beginning of October 2011) compared to a 100% stock and a 75% stock, 25% bond portfolio. The historical prices data source is Yahoo Finance. Monthly rebalancing is performed to maintain the appropriate asset allocation targets.

Permanent Portfolio Performance Table

Examining the table above, it can be seen that the Refined Permanent Portfolio does indeed outperform both the 100% stock and the stock/bond portfolios by a significant margin, as evidenced by nearly a 60% improvement in return on your original investment (20-year overall ROI), along with exhibiting 30-70% lower risk (lower standard deviation of annual returns).

Essentially, The Permanent Portfolio resulted in overall greater returns because it is insulated against the big decreases in price stemming from the often-volatile stock market. This phenomenon is best illustrated by the graph below, which shows the investment value growth of a $10,000 starting investment in the Refined Permanent Portfolio (blue plot) vs. a 100% stock portfolio (red plot).

The enhanced stability of the Permanent Portfolio was especially apparent in the 1997-2002 time frame (see black square in graph below), when the 100% stock portfolio first increased by more than 100%, only to then decrease nearly 50% in one to two years. The Permanent Portfolio was protected from this huge swing in prices, effectively preserving investor capital.

Permanent Portfolio Graph

Should investors incorporate the Permanent Portfolio?

Because of the consistency of the Permanent Portfolio over the past 50 years in either being competitive with or exceeding the long-term returns obtained using traditional stock/fixed income portfolios, I am convinced that The Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well over the long-term.

However, I believe that investors should only adopt the strategy in full if the following conditions are true.

  • They will truly stick with it over the 20 years needed to obtain results competitive with or beating stocks, or
  • If they are merely looking for a conservative (not market-beating) strategy to preserve capital and stay ahead of inflation (which coincidentally, is the true goal for The Permanent Portfolio).

However, honestly, I feel that few investors (myself included) will have the resolve to stick with the strategy for the long-term, for the reasons mentioned below.

  • The majority of investors that are interested in The Permanent Portfolio at the current time are simply looking at it as a possible way to “beat the market,” and not as a method to preserve capital, as it is truly intended.
  • The Permanent Portfolio strategy’s returns have a low correlation with the returns of the stock market (a correlation coefficient of 0.58), meaning that if you employ this strategy, you’ll only enjoy any gains happening in the stock market about half the time. (Tthink about completely being excluded from the euphoria of the increase in the stock market in the late 1990′s. Would you be OK with that?) In my opinion, the low correlation of The Permanent Portfolio with the stock market makes it nearly impossible for investors looking to aggressively grow their money to stay with The Permanent Portfolio strategy.

Instead, most investors would be better served by sticking with an investing strategy using and a more “traditional” asset allocation that has a slightly higher correlation with the overall market.

Do you think that the Permanent Portfolio will continue to perform well in the next 20 years? Do you feel you’d have the discipline to stick with the strategy, even if it meant underperforming the rest of the market for long periods of time?

The complete set of calculations of the historical performance of the “Refined” Permanent Portfolio, correlation coefficients matrices, and price history of the proposed index mutual fund Permanent Portfolio is included in this Google Docs Spreadsheet.

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TurboTax 2012 Online Review

by Flexo
tt-featured-img

This is a relatively long review of TurboTax 2012 Online, software for completing tax forms and submitting them to both the federal and state authorities. I’ve updated the review to reflect the changes to the software in 2012 (for filing 2011 tax returns). Recently, the IRS began accepting federal tax returned filed electronically. Even before ... Continue reading this article…

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Schwab Creates Low-Cost 401(k) Fund Choices

by Flexo

I used to work for a company in the financial services industry. Another branch of the corporation I worked for is involved with institutional money management. This department manages institutional investments like company retirement plans and pensions. This is a service they provided to other companies of various types, much like Fidelity and Schwab offer ... Continue reading this article…

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Year-End Personal Balance Sheet, December 2011

by Flexo
Net worth balance sheet, December 2011

I’ve spent the last decade of my life focused on my finances. I started because I had no money and a job that was taking more from me than it was providing in income. I knew I had to make some changes if I wanted to build any kind of future for myself. Soon into ... Continue reading this article…

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Reflecting on My 2011 Goals

by Flexo

A little less than a year ago, I mentioned that 2011 would be the year that everything changes. It’s a phrasing that I borrowed from Torchwood, but it was relevant for me as well as to the television program’s concept. I’ll have more to say about this year’s changes later. At the time I created ... Continue reading this article…

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