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Today on the Consumerism Commentary Podcast, Bryan talks to Chris Camillo, author of Laughing at Wall Street: How I Beat the Pros at Investing (by Reading Tabloids, Shopping at the Mall, and Connecting on Facebook) and How You Can, Too.

Chris advises avoiding standard Wall Street advice and focusing on social networks, personal shopping research and pop culture for discovering investment ideas.

Consumerism Commentary Podcast
Bank Transfer Day: S06E03 / 158

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Table of contents


[00:00] Introduction from Bryan J Busch
[00:33] Interview with Chris Camillo
[00:51] Technical analysis and fundamental analysis
[04:49] 401(k) plans
[07:17] Finding money for investing
[09:26] Missing Snapple
[11:11] Information arbitrage
[14:40] Applying the scientific method
[18:42] Rewarding your network of helpers
[19:42] Performing analysis research
[22:52] Investment ideas surround us every day
[25:33] End

We always welcome feedback from listeners. If you have any comments for this episode or for any other, or if you have suggestions for future episodes, please leave us comments here or email us at podcast at this domain name.

Theme music by Mindcube.

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We know about TARP, the program that used taxpayer money to lend to the biggest Wall Street banks tin an effort to prevent the collapse of the financial industry. The Federal Reserve loaned more money to Wall Street, however, in secret. The details are only coming out now thanks to the Freedom of Information Act and an act of Congress.

Besides TARP, banks received $1.2 trillion in federal loans, the details of which have been sorted through by Bloomberg. The programs include the Term Auction Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), Single-Tranche Open Market Operations, Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, and Discount Window.

  • The Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility gave loans to banks so they could meet withdrawal demands of customers invested in money market mutual funds.
  • The Commercial Paper Funding Facility helped companies sell short-term bonds (with maturities less tan 270 days) to find their operations.
  • The Discount Window allowed for more loans to banks to meet consumers’ withdrawal demands at a low borrowing rate.
  • The Primary Dealer Credit Facility allowed brokerages to qualify for TARP-type loans, which were originally intended for banks, not brokerages.
  • The Single-Tranche Open Market Operations created an auction for banks, using mortgage-backed assets as collateral.
  • The Term Auction Facility was another set of loans for banks who feared the negative market reaction to using the Discount Window, loans of last resort.
  • The Term Securities Lending Facility allowed banks to swap toxic assets for U.S. Treasuries.

The loans were not limited to American companies. In one of the most interesting cases, a German commercial property lender received $28.8 billion, double the amount the bank received from its own country, amounting to $21 million per employee. Like most companies taking advantage of these Federal Reserve lending facilities, this company did not make the details of the borrowing known until the program itself became public.

What kind of precedent does this set for future recessions? First, Federal Reserve lending comes at a cost to taxpayers. In some cases, government money has been exchanged for share ownership, and there’s a potential for the public to profit when that company recovers. It’s a risky investment for public money, and the public has very little influence in how their tax revenues are invested and spent. Keeping the $1.2 trillion in loans hidden from view might have been the only way the plan would have survived, with public opinion turning away from assisting Wall Street with more bailouts. Nevertheless, many economists believe these loans were necessary to prevent the destruction of the global financial industry.

Thanks primarily to the internet and the abundance of informational sources, you would think transparency is greater and that organizations would have a difficult time keeping major programs secret. While many people were aware of the existence of these programs, they weren’t nearly in the public eye as much as TARP was, and the extent of these programs and the affected companies were for the most part unknown until recently.

It’s worthwhile to note that $1.2 trillion is the peak amount of the loans. As some institutions paid back earlier loans, the proceeds were then available for new loans. The “same dollar” could have been used in several loans to several different companies at different times.

Bloomberg, Bloomberg

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We pay a sales tax on most products we buy, so why isn’t there a tax when you buy stocks and bonds? In the United Kingdom, a tax on stock purchases raises four billion pounds annually. It’s hard to estimate how much revenue a tax on financial transactions would generate in the United States, but it’s an idea that could put a dent in the deficit.

The tax would most impact high frequency traders, who often speculate, and make the stock market more volatile. Taxes are used not only as a way to generate revenue but as a way to influence spending decisions, and a tax like this might decrease the public’s interest in trading. While the cost of a tax would be borne by the investment companies, the costs would be passed onto traders through higher spreads and less favorable pricing structures.

Productive and long-term investment would continue. Just like sales tax doesn’t stop consumers from purchasing what they need to survive in addition to desires affordable and not, long-term investors would hardly notice the tax. If this idea becomes law, the idea of taxing financial transactions will eventually become embedded in our expectations. That’s not to say that a law like this could be passed without a fight. Wall Street profits immensely from high frequency trading, and companies whose revenue would be subject to this tax and whose revenues could be affected by it have a loud voice and a lot of money in Washington.

Even if half of all frequent traders are discouraged away from their approach, a tax on Wall Street transactions could generate up to $175 billion in revenue. Congressman Peter DiFazio introduced the “Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act,” H.R. 4191, which would introduce a 0.25% sales tax on speculative trading and a 0.02% sales tax on derivatives. (Compare this with state sales taxes, ranging from 4% to 10%.) Retirement accounts, mutual funds, education savings accounts, health savings accounts, and the first $100,000 of any financial transaction would be exempt from this tax, in the current form of the bill. This helps to ensure the tax would be felt mainly by frequent traders, not most Americans investing for their future.

Do you support a tax on high frequency transactions?

New York Times

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Two years ago, Michael Brush from MSN said, like many other financial columnists, that the buy-and-hold investment strategy, or the long-term efficacy of that approach, is a lie. This echoed a lot of the prevailing popular thinking at the time. The stock market was at an all-time low. People who believed in buy-and-hold investing, which says one should avoid trading frequently in favor of holding investments for the long term, where particularly hit by the stock market downturn.

Experts pondered whether the stock market had fundamentally changed. The average annual returns of 8% would never be seen in domestic equities again. The MSN article provided the reason for this paradigm shift: there was more risk in stocks. I liked this response from a reader:

This guy, like many finance authors on MSN, not only has no clue what he’s talking about, but is saying the exact opposite of what is true. When the stock market goes down, the risk goes down with it. The cheaper the prices, the less the risk.

On the plus side, all the ignorant articles on MSN enable truly intelligent investors to make more money over the long-run.

Matt Krantz, financial columnist for USA Today, has good news for buy-and-hold investors:

Investors who have hung on haven’t done all that badly. It’s true that the stock market is still roughly 15% below where it was at its 2007 peak. But buy-and-hold investors have actually done better than that. For one thing, these investors have continued to collect their roughly 2% a year dividend yield. Adding that in, investors are only down 9% from the high.

Yet, many buy-and-hold investors are probably doing even better than that. One of the key tenets of buy-and-hold is continual investing. Rather than trying to time and market and dart in and out of stocks, prudent buy-and-hold investors added to their investments during the downturn. If you did that, buy-and-hold has paid off handsomely for you and has helped to get you to back even to the peak. In fact, many buy-and-hold investors might even be up from the 2007 peak if they bought during the downturn.

Michael Brush’s MSN article from 2009, which echoed popular opinion, should have been a good sign that enough investors had given up on the stock market. The sentiment, in a short two-year context, may have signaled the best time to double down and take advantage of low stock prices, with the exact buy-and-hold strategy that was being vilified.

There certainly is a possibility that the stock market will fall again, and perhaps find a new low water mark. Political unrest around the world is usually not a good sign for global short-term economic growth. Nevertheless, over time, those who continue to buy will most likely be rewarded. Buy-and-hold is back.

USA Today, MSN

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50 Cent Plugs Stock to 3.8 Million Followers on Twitter, Stock Soars

by Flexo
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Here’s a fun experiment. You don’t need many materials, just a little bit of work. Here are the steps: Create a huge following on Twitter. Put your money into a little-known stock with low trading value. Write several messages on Twitter to almost 4 million followers about how good the investment is. Watch the valuation ... Continue reading this article…

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Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Takes Shape

by Flexo

In July, the federal government passed a sweeping new law to reform the financial industry. One of the biggest and most hotly contested aspect of this new law is the establishment of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. President Obama has tapped Elizabeth Warren to oversee the development of this new agency. The new director won’t ... Continue reading this article…

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The New Financial Regulation Law and Your Money

by Smithee

Flexo posted a good review of the major changes in the Wall Street Reform bill that passed through Congress yesterday, and mentioned that it will be some time before we know exactly how the regulations which are now possible will be written. But there are some reasonable guesses we can make, and I thought it ... Continue reading this article…

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Basics of the Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee (Bank Tax)

by Smithee

Yesterday, President Obama put forth a proposal to recover a projected shortfall in TARP repayments. When the TARP was created, the EESA statute specified that the president would need a plan before 2013 to avoid shortfalls that would add to the deficit. Instead of 2013, we got one this week. Is it a good plan? ... Continue reading this article…

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