One of my concerns with the possibility of leaving my day job and pursuing self-employment through writing and managing websites is the unpredictable income. At the extreme, my biggest concern is the idea that it’s quite possible that the income could drop off permanently due to forces beyond my control. But even if that doesn’t happen, the ability to earn income from blogging and such could vary widely from one month to the next.

Budgeting can help, but the problem with a budget is you have to assume a certain amount of income. That’s the first suggestion from Money Magazine in a recent article about living well on a “flexible” income. The article suggestions taking your lowest annual earnings from the last five years, divide that number by twelve, and use the result as your monthly spending limit.

It would be a good idea to inflate your emergency fund. The typical advice for an average person calls for three to six months’ living expenses in a liquid savings account (though you might prefer a more tiered approach to an emergency funding plan). People with unpredictable income may benefit from beefing up the emergency fund to cover one year’s worth of expenses.

Is that too much? If I were approaching a year without income, I probably would have found another job by then, taking what I could if necessary. I suppose it depends on the marketability of one’s skills.

The Money Magazine article warns about underestimating your financial needs in retirement. Rather than anticipating that you’ll need 80% of your income once you retire, a rule of thumb touted by some, look at your current expenses and try to determine what they might look like when you no longer have the desire to work. Perhaps there are some expenses you could reduce while other expenses might increase. Focus on the necessary expenses rather than the income needed.

If you plan for a conservative income, it’s likely you’ll have excess some years. Money Magazine suggests using your surplus cash to build or replenish your emergency fund first and pay off debt. Additional extra cash can be saved or spent.

Insurance should be a concern, too.

For life insurance, consider what portion of your yearly expenses won’t be covered without your salary. Multiply that by the number of years you want coverage (until your kids finish college or you hit retirement is typical). Add in any big stuff like kids’ college costs.

While the article is geared towards people who work for an employer and have an unsteady income, like someone who works on a 100% commission basis, the advice works for independent consultants who need to find clients and other self-employed individuals.

5 ways to manage a ‘flexible’ income, Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine, September 2, 2008

I may have fallen back into old habits. Several years ago, when I was refreshing my life and beginning to control my finances, I made deep cuts into my expenses. I took on three roommates, paying only $325 a month for my portion of rent. I didn’t own a car and relied on mass transit for most of my transportation. When I did move out on my own, finding one of the least expensive apartments in town, I eliminated all but the most basic cable television.

There was more I could have done had I wanted to reduce my expenses, but I reached the point at which I was consistently investing and saving money every month.

As my income has grown over the past few years, I’ve allowed my expenses to follow. I moved into an apartment I actually like and feel comfortable spending some cash on unnecessary things I like, such as amateur coin collecting, amateur photography, and amateur high-definition entertainment enjoyment.

I’ve already thought of some ways to reduce my expenses by $10,000 a year. Consumer Reports has some suggestions for finding another $6,000 a year, but only a few apply to me. How about you?

Find cheaper auto insurance. I mentioned that several years ago I didn’t have a car. That wasn’t quite by choice; my license was suspended when I was younger for failure to pay speeding tickets. It would be easy to say that I received those tickets thanks to a stressful job working 100 hours a week and my failure to pay was because I had no money, but I should have been more responsible. Until I got rid of the car, my insurance was about $4,000 a year if I remember correctly. Now my insurance is about $1,500 a year, and I could only find that rate by shopping around for a while. It’s been several years since I’ve shopped around, so that’s something I will consider. I need to add renter’s insurance as well—something I’m sad to admit I’ve never had despite its reportedly low price.

Optimize your life insurance. Right now, my cat Rupert is the only living being that relies on my income to survive. I have not opted for life insurance yet as it will be generally unnecessary until I have a (human) family. According to Consumer Reports, insurance premiums have decreased on average, so it may be a good time to replace your policy with a new one. You may be able to get the same coverage for less.

Shop smart for food. Buying food for a single guy is not simple. Food is usually packaged for families. This means I usually end up spending more per meal and eating larger portions that I should be. I don’t enjoy spending time preparing and cooking dinner. I have accepted my failure at brown-bagging my lunch and moved on. Consumer Reports’ advice is tailored to a family, indicating on average an household could save $190 a month by shifting to less expensive food. My entire monthly grocery bill is about $190, though eating out (and ordering in) matches that.

Plan menus around sales on fresh poultry, fish, meat, dairy, and produce, and make use of leftovers. Avoid costly prepared meals. Eat more low-priced, high-nutrition foods such as beans and potatoes… Shop in lower-cost stores such as Aldi Foods, PriceRite, Costco, Trader Joe’s, Wal-Mart, and Sam’s Club, but be sure to compare prices. Try less-expensive store brands. Sign up for store discount cards. Stock up on sale-priced staples.

Stop paying bank fees. This is one of the most unnecessary expenses for just about everyone in the United States of America. There is rarely a reason that you should have to pay incidental or monthly fees for any basic banking service if you manage your money. Avoid overdraft fees or over-the-limit fees by being aware of your account balances. Avoid monthly or yearly maintenance fees by taking advantage of only free accounts—there are many to choose from if your bank insists on charging you a fee for your banking. Avoid cash withdrawal fees by using the right ATMs.

According to Consumer Reports, 52% of consumers don’t pay any bank fees, but the rest pay lots.

Optimize your telephone service. I don’t spend that much time on the phone. I could probably save a lot of money if I were to choose a prepaid cell phone plan. However, I chose a Blackberry plan with Verizon Wireless, which I use more for business, and I don’t intend on changing the plan.

I’ve helped other people look at their telephone usage habits and choosing a plan that better fits the amount of time they spend on the phone. On many plans, going over the allotted number of minutes can be very expensive. If you’re consistently exceeding your limit, you can save tons of money by switching plans.

Pay off your credit card. According to Consumerism Commentary, “On average, consumers who carry a balance owe $2,200, on which they pay 15.2 percent in annual interest charges.” Paying that much interest negates any progress you may be achieving with your savings or investments. To get rid of credit card debt, stop using the cards and then apply the Debt Avalanche.

It’s been several years since I’ve paid interest on a credit card, but I still pay about $30 a month on my student loan interest. I still have a student loan because several years ago, I applied some tuition reimbursement towards expenses rather than my loan. I probably should have done whatever possible to avoid that, but for whatever reason, it was the choice I made. At the time, the interest on the student loan was about 2% and I was earning more in my savings accounts, but that’s no longer the case. Therefore, I have been increasing my debt repayments every month this year, with the goal of vanquishing the remaining balance by the end of the year. If I decide that goal still makes sense, I’ll have to accelerate in order to achieve it.

According to Consumer Reports, the average family can save $500 by making the changes listed above. I have a feeling that many Consumerism Commentary readers are already optimized.

Cut your spending by $500 per month, Consumer Reports, August 2008 (subscription required)

NPR syndicates a show called “Marketplace” all over the country (and online, of course). I like to listen to the Morning Report while driving to work. The show does a great job of explaining current economic stories without a lot of technical explanations and acronyms.

I found a game on the Web site called “Budget Hero” which simulates the different factors that go into saving, or destroying, America’s national budget.

There’s some debate about whether the gameplay is faulty or based on incorrect premises. I definitely recommend you don’t “skip the briefing” before playing. Here are some illustrative comments from people who have played the game:

I am a Scottish citizen aged 13 and i can control America’s Budget better than the Bush White House. By M L, From Aberdeen, 07/25/2008

Interesting, but based on a flawed premise. Everone should read “Taxes For Revenue Are Obsolete” to get a look into the mindset of the Federal Reserve, which is neither federal (not a Gov’t. agency) nor a reserve … By Art Northrup, Jr., From NC, 06/18/2008

I wish the people, especially the local candidates, we will be voting for this fall would take this test. Then I’d have an clearer idea of their beliefs. By cj r, From FL, 06/13/2008

Have you played the game? How did you do? Do you agree that it’s flawed?

I have never been a fan of a monthly budget. In early 2002, when I admitted I was spending more than I was earning, I forced myself to enact categorical limits for my expenses. It helped for a short time, but it wasn’t long before I found myself with a new spending philosophy and more income. The system of budgeting eventually became less imperative. I was in the habit of controlling my spending, and the shackles of a budget were not for me.

Also, my budget was frequently off. In a category like clothing, for which I may have budgeted $25 a month for new clothes, I may be significantly over the limit one month while under the limit for several following months.

The “envelope” budgeting system lets you carry over the unused surplus in one category to be used later. If I spend only $10 in clothing in April, the remaining $15 can be added to my available funds in May. For me, if I were to budget, this flexibility would be one of the most important aspects. Also, I would require the flexibility to adjust my budget whether life changes require an increase in spending or if my observed patterns are different than I expected.

But what good is a budget in terms of motivation for real change if you know you can adjust it to fit your desires as you progress?

People generally don’t budget well when projecting monthly expenses. There is a tendency to underestimate true expenses, particularly when actual historical data aren’t used as the basis. A budget in this form creates expectations which, if not met, could lead to lowered motivation. A budget abandoned after the first few months is a wasted exercise.

A recent study concluded that a budget based on yearly expenses will be a better spending plan. People tend to overestimate their expenses when they consider the entire year ahead. Actual spending will have a better chance of falling within the budget, and this success could motivate further budgeting.

By looking at your expenses over an entire year, you give the bumps a chance to smooth.

If you are bored or frustrated by typical budgeting, particularly the way budgeting is designed in software like Quicken and Money, try looking at the larger picture rather than focusing on fluctuating monthly expenses.

The Year of Magical Budgeting [New York Times]

I decided this year that a rudimentary budget would help me further analyze my spending beyond my monthly income and expense reports. Since moving to my new apartment last July, my discretionary expenses have been increasing. Perhaps designing a spending plan and evaluating my real expenses against the budget each month will help me rein in some of that spending.

To create this budget, I examined my expenses from 2007. It’s reasonable to expect that costs for certain items, like gasoline and groceries, are going to increase. Some predictions call for runaway inflation this year, but I’m taking a more practical approach. I’m also using conservative estimates for my income. I’m forecasting a 3% salary increase in March, below my expectations, but anything can happen in the corporate environment. I haven’t included a bonus in the forecast, although I expect to receive one in February or March.

I’m also budgeting income from other sources steady at $6,000 per month. I hope that this is a conservative prediction. My goal for 2008 is to earn a total of $100,000 outside of my day job and I won’t get there earning $6,000 each month.

Keep reading this article to see my budget worksheet followed by more explanation. Clicking on the thumbnail will present a larger, more legible chart.

While most line items are consistent from month to month, I adjusted the months in which I will receive three pay checks. I also adjusted my forecast rent expense for the month I renew my lease—I’d be surprised if my rent did not go up. It may not increase 10%, but it seems like a conservative guess. The total rent budget for the year accounts for 15% of my projected income. I’m comfortable with that level of spending.

All budgeted expenses, discretionary and non-discretionary, add up to only 54% of my total projected income. This means I have a a significant portion of income not earmarked for spending. I intend to use the surplus to pay off my student loan debt this year (another one of my goals) as well as save and invest as much as possible. The surplus will also help me pay for any unexpected decisions I make this year, and I’m “expecting the unexpected.”

I’ve simplified the categories I normally use in my monthly reports in order to add flexibility and not tie myself down too much. I think I included the major categories, but this is my first attempt at creating a budget in several years. If there’s anything I’ve left out, please let me know.

6:30 pm Update: I’ve fixed calculation errors in the table, so view the graphic again if you were confused the first time.

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine announced yesterday a plan to raise money in New Jersey to issue bonds in a public benefits corporation that will manage the toll roads. The bonds will be paid back through a series of toll increases. Starting in 2010 and every four years until 2022, toll prices on the New Jersey Turnpike, Garden State Parkway, and Atlantic City Expressway will increase by a factor of 50% plus inflation. Route 440 will also become a toll highway for a stretch.

Right now, I pay a total of $0.90 in toll charge for my daily commute. I can’t find any data on historic toll rates, but it’s my understanding that toll increases have lagged far behind the governmentally-reported inflation numbers (for what they are worth). A 50% increase in 2010, assuming I work and live in the same locations, would bring my daily fee to $1.35 or about an additional $115 per year in today’s dollars over this year’s toll expenditure. All things considered, that’s not too steep of an increase in dollars.

In 2014, the toll rate for the same round-trip commute will be about $2.00 or about a $275 increase in today’s dollars. Now it’s starting to sound a bit hairy. In 2018, the price would increase to $3.00 in today’s dollars and in 2022, a daily commute between the two interchanges I now use will be $4.50 in today’s dollars.

Today, if you pay cash rather than use E-Zpass and commute from the southernmost exit to the northernmost (and back), you would be spending a total of $12.90 each day. In 2022, a round trip tour of the full span of the New Jersey Turnpike will cost $65 in today’s dollars. But by then, you may be able to buy only one gallon of gasoline for $65.

The state intends to raise money quickly through the bonds issued in this new corporation, but that’s not the only piece. Corzine mentioned in his State of the State address a four-point plan for fixing the state’s budget:

• Freeze spending by the government.
• Limit future spending to only what can be provided by revenue.
• Monetize the toll highways.

• Require voter authorization before borrowing more money.

  This plan was devised as an alternative to raising state income tax, sales tax, or gasoline tax. Will it work? Most people I’ve talked to so far don’t think this plan is too sound. The future toll hikes inequitably burden commuters and shore-vacationers, which includes out-of-state visitors. Some other options for balancing the budget while avoiding unpopular taxation are for the government to cut spending and/or consolidate school districts. (It has actually been shown that district consolidation in practice increases expenses despite theories about economy of scale. I would support whichever option improves the quality of education for the most amount of students.)

  Corzine challenged critics to present their own plan. Now it’s your chance to be Governor of New Jersey—everyone’s dream job. What would you do? Some details would be helpful; “cut spending” is not a complete suggestion.

  Corzine unveils plan for state finances [The Star-Ledger]

Unlike my first mistake, Failing to Utilize the Energy Tax Credit, my next mistake is one where I at least have a second chance. It’s not too late to fix this one for 2008.

2. Failing to Establish a Spending Budget

I tried to spend less, consider my purchases more, and get the best deals possible when buying things in 2007. While I did halfheartedly inventory my spending and try to get my costs down for each category, I did not establish a budget for these categories at all.

This means that things like restaurant spending and even the occasional clothes shopping spree can get a bit out of hand—I don’t even have an idea of a spending limit, I just go by what feels reasonable at the time. I need to get on top of this for 2008.

But how? Read the rest of this article »