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treasury bills

Yesterday I mentioned that the U.S. Treasury was able to raise $40 billion in a one-day auction of 35-day Treasury bills. When you bid for these investments, you could either compete with others by offering to invest at the lowest interest rate you’re willing to accept or bid “non-competitively,” accepting whatever the Treasury Department determines the rate will be. Many people are willing to lend money to the government at a rate of 0%. That sounds like a horrible deal, but here’s a few reasons why investors will bid 0% on a short-term Treasury bill.

The stock market is likely to decline. With the media reporting to collapse of Wall Street, putting your money in an investment earning 0% is a better proposition than leaving it in stocks poised to lose money in the short term. I don’t suggest market timing or guessing what the stock market will do over the short term. Did you know on Wednesday that the S&P 500 was going to be up 4.3% on Thursday? I didn’t. Nevertheless, there are situations where not losing money (in a 0% T-bill) is a better option than probably losing money (in the stock market).

More banks are likely to fail. Washington Mutual still seems to be the bank that the media is giving a hard time. It is quite possible, however, that the next bank to fail will be a surprise. As long as your money is protected by the FDIC, you will be able to withdraw your funds. You may not be able to access your funds as quickly as you like, however. Moving your savings account to a Treasury bill might earn you less interest — or it might not — but you’re guaranteed to be able to access your funds. Accepting a low interest rate is a trade-off for much less risk in a volatile environment.

Just because you bid 0% doesn’t mean you’ll get 0%. When the Treasury bill auction ends, all winning bidders get the same interest rate. Winners are chosen from the bottom up, so a low bid helps to guarantee you’ll win. But all investors will receive the interest rate of the highest winning bid. In Wednesday’s auction for 35-day T-bills, the highest interest rate accepted was 0.3%, so this is the rate all winning bidders, even those who bid 0%, received. Now 0.3% isn’t much higher than 0%, but it does match what you might be earning in a standard brick-and-mortar savings account. Bidding 0% means you won’t be bidding too high to be excluded from the issuance.

You expect the dollar’s value to increase relative to a foreign currency. If you live in Japan, for example, and do all your banking in yen, a low interest rate in USD might be a good investment if you expect the dollar to increase against the yen. If the dollar gains an annual rate of 5% against the yen over the period of the Treasury bill and your yield on the T-bill is 0.3%, then your returns after conversion back to yen would be similar to a local bank account earning 5.3%.

Bidding 0% on a Treasury bill doesn’t sound like a bad idea right now, particularly if you think the other options available for short-term investments are worse.

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When I heard the news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is making $85 billion available to American International Group in the form of loans, one of my first questions was about the source of the money. Does the Federal Reserve keep an emergency fund available to bail out companies during financial crises or does it just create the money out of thin air?

My question was answered on last night’s episode of Marketplace. Since the private sector refused to help AIG, the government stepped in to prevent financial meltdown. The $85 billion is taxpayers’ money, but it’s not funded by taxes we’ve paid. The U.S. Treasury Department sells securities to the public in order to raise the funds used for this bail-out. Yesterday, the Treasury Department auctioned short-term investments. The 35-Day Treasury Bill issued yesterday raised $40 billion in one day.

This auction process allows the investor to name their interest rates, and the Treasury picks the best offers. Many people were willing to lend the government money at a 0% interest rate. The median interest rate for all bids was 0.05%. The Federal Reserve, in turn, is lending money to AIG at a variable rate currently above 11%. If AIG is able to sell its assets and pay back the loans to the Federal Reserve over the next two years, the government stands to make a lot of money thanks to the wide spread in interest rates between the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and lending.

Even if AIG does not pay back the loan, the Treasury Department will still be able to pay back its investors. The government will use whatever means necessary in order to pay the investors as agreed, possibly printing money if necessary.

The fact that the government was able to raise a large amount of money at very low interest rates shows that investors are nervous. They’re willing to invest their money at a very low rate in return for a very safe investment.

Where does bailout money come from?, Marketplace, September 17, 2008
Treasury Auction Results (PDF), U.S. Treasury Department, September 17, 2008

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