This summary of a discussion and Q&A session by Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages the endowment investments for the Ivy League university, was sent to me.
He has talks about the global economy, but without too many specific answers. El-Erian does hint at an answer to a question any investor should want to know: Where is Harvard investing their $29 billion capital?
His answer, according to the notes of the blogger’s transcription of the talk:
We think US fixed income market is near a secular top.
We think US economy will soft-land, either for endogenous reasons (housing market corrects but corporate investment picks up) or will soft-land because of enormous monetary market flexibility (Fed could cut rates). ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hard to imagine foreign markets doing better than US when US goes into recession. So thereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s no safe refuge. If world goes into recession, you want a liquid market.
Check out the rest of the private talk. El-Erian has some interesting thoughts about China, as well.
Updated February 10, 2011 and originally published October 19, 2006. If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to the RSS feed or receive daily emails. Follow @flexo on Twitter and visit our Facebook page for more updates.